AI Power Demand Reality Check: Wood Mackenzie Projects Only 28% of Requested Capacity Will Materialize; Financing and Execution Gaps Persist

A new Wood Mackenzie analysis projects that only 28% of the 1,066 GW of AI data center power requests will actually be built, a significant reality check for the nuclear renaissance thesis. Even so, 28% (~300 GW) is still massive and supports long-term nuclear demand. However, the gap between headline PPA announcements and project financing/insurance remains a critical bottleneck—builders' risk insurance for nuclear is untested (only 2-3% of projects under construction have coverage), and the capital stack is still being built. This reinforces the pre-revenue execution risk for SMR developers and reactor restarts. The analysis tempers hype but does not invalidate the structural drivers.