Building domestic/en allied enrichment, HALEU/TRISO fabrication, recycling pilots, and industrial policy to secure the fuel cycle

The year 2026 marks a defining moment in the United States and allied nations’ strategic effort to reclaim sovereignty over the nuclear fuel cycle, driven by surging demand from AI infrastructure, defense microreactors, and advanced nuclear power deployment. With electricity-hungry data centers projected by EPRI to consume up to 17% of U.S. electricity by 2030, the imperative to secure reliable, high-performance nuclear fuels has never been greater. This urgency is propelling an accelerated, multi-dimensional push focused on scaling domestic HALEU enrichment, expanding advanced fuel fabrication—including TRISO and MOX fuels—piloting recycling technologies, and deploying AI-enabled regulatory modernization, all underpinned by cohesive industrial policies and robust international partnerships.

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Accelerated Efforts to Scale HALEU Enrichment and Fuel Fabrication

Centrus Energy’s $2.7 Billion ACP Expansion remains the centerpiece of domestic HALEU enrichment capacity growth, aimed at meeting the burgeoning demand for advanced reactors and defense microreactors. However, Centrus CEO’s recent warning of a looming HALEU enrichment supply gap underscores the fragility of the supply chain. Without accelerated capital deployment and streamlined regulatory approval, this bottleneck risks delaying critical advanced reactor projects and the broader nuclear resurgence.

Complementing this, Orano USA’s Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) submission signals a major milestone toward creating additional U.S.-based enrichment capacity. This move not only diversifies supply sources but also deepens U.S.–France nuclear cooperation, further cemented by a landmark $900 million HALEU/TRISO procurement agreement to foster technology sharing and supply chain resilience.

In the advanced fuel fabrication arena, X-energy’s TRISO-X subsidiary recently secured the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Special Nuclear Material license, enabling large-scale manufacturing of accident-tolerant TRISO fuel. This fuel’s superior safety and energy density make it ideal for powering the next generation of hyperscale AI data centers—Amazon’s strategic equity investment in X-energy highlights the growing corporate recognition of nuclear’s role in AI infrastructure. Additionally, Deep Fission Nuclear’s fuel supply agreement with Urenco USA strengthens the domestic pipeline for enriched uranium feedstock, vital for both TRISO and MOX fuel fabrication.

On the MOX front, collaborations with European innovators like Newcleo advance mixed oxide fuel technologies that aim to close the fuel cycle by recycling plutonium stockpiles into usable reactor fuel, reinforcing sustainability and strategic material security.

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Recycling Pilots and Strategic HALEU Stockpiling

The DOE’s Pluthermal program exemplifies the commitment to developing a circular nuclear fuel economy. With participation expanded to eleven utilities, the program focuses on recovering plutonium from spent fuel and converting it back into thermal reactor fuel. AI-driven computational modeling is optimizing these processes, enhancing efficiency and safety.

Meanwhile, the DOE’s Project Vault initiative is building strategic HALEU reserves intended to buffer the market against supply disruptions and geopolitical risks. This stockpiling approach is critical as uranium markets tighten and demand from civilian and defense applications continues to grow.

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Uranium Market Tightness and Mining Developments

The uranium supply landscape is evolving rapidly:

• Canada’s approval of its first new uranium mine in two decades marks a milestone in supply diversification.
• Indigenous-led companies like Gamma Resources (Mesa Arc, NM) and Verdera Energy, which recently raised $20 million, are advancing exploration and development efforts.
• Established producers like Cameco and Energy Fuels are reporting strong earnings, reflecting bullish market fundamentals.
• The uranium spot price has climbed approximately 22% year-to-date, with the Geiger Counter Uranium ETF (URA) surging 42.8% YTD.
• Analysts forecast uranium prices surpassing $100/lb by Q3 2026, driven by tight utility inventories and rising demand.

These trends reinforce the urgency to ramp up domestic and allied uranium production to reduce reliance on high-risk foreign sources.

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AI-Driven Regulatory Modernization and Industrial Policy

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is leveraging AI-enabled digital twins, real-time data integration, and predictive analytics to accelerate licensing and enhance quality assurance. This includes AI-supported risk assessments and automated inspection processes at facilities like X-energy’s TRISO fuel plant, enabling unprecedented precision without compromising safety.

On the policy front, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker’s Executive Order 2024-01 exemplifies state-level commitment to nuclear expansion, catalyzing investments and regulatory reforms that support regional fuel cycle and reactor manufacturing capabilities. Similar initiatives are emerging across other states, demonstrating how subnational policies complement federal efforts.

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Strengthened International Partnerships and Allied Cooperation

The U.S. is deepening nuclear fuel cycle collaboration with allies:

• Expanded US-UK partnerships focus on SMRs and HALEU supply chains.
• Enhanced U.S.–France cooperation through enrichment and fuel fabrication agreements.
• Support for Poland’s nuclear projects with Westinghouse and Norway’s government-backed SMR feasibility studies illustrate a growing allied effort to build a resilient, sovereign nuclear industrial base.

These partnerships serve both to diversify supply chains and to collectively reduce geopolitical vulnerabilities.

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Corporate Moves Powering the AI-Nuclear Nexus

Amazon’s recent publicized expansion into nuclear energy underscores the growing intersection of AI and nuclear power. As AI workloads scale exponentially, traditional power sources struggle to meet their massive electricity demands sustainably. Nuclear, particularly advanced reactors fueled by HALEU and TRISO, is increasingly viewed as a reliable, carbon-free backbone to power hyperscale data centers.

This corporate demand injection heightens the urgency of securing sovereign fuel supplies and accelerating industrial policy frameworks that support rapid scale-up.

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Persistent Challenges and Strategic Responses

Key risks remain:

• The HALEU enrichment bottleneck threatens to stall reactor deployment timelines.
• Capital constraints and regulatory hurdles could slow facility expansions.
• Supply chain vulnerabilities from reliance on foreign uranium and enrichment services persist.

Addressing these requires:

• Accelerated capital deployment and financing guarantees for enrichment and fabrication facilities.
• Coordinated civilian and defense HALEU demand management to leverage economies of scale.
• Continued AI-driven regulatory modernization to compress licensing timelines.
• Proactive community engagement and ESG management to avoid permitting delays.
• Sustained supply chain diversification through mining expansion and allied cooperation.

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Conclusion: Building a Sovereign Nuclear Fuel Cycle for a Decarbonized, AI-Driven Future

The convergence of government initiatives, private sector investments, and international partnerships is rapidly reshaping the future of the nuclear fuel cycle. By scaling HALEU enrichment, advancing TRISO and MOX fuel fabrication, piloting recycling programs, and integrating AI into regulatory frameworks, the U.S. and its allies are forging a robust, sovereign supply chain.

This strategic momentum is essential not only for powering the explosive growth of AI infrastructure and defense microreactors but also for securing America’s clean energy future and national security. While challenges remain, the alignment of bipartisan political support, cutting-edge technology, and industrial policy innovation provides a strong foundation for global leadership in an increasingly AI-driven, decarbonized energy economy.

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Supporting Articles and Recent Developments

• “EPRI: Data Centers Could Consume Up to 17% of U.S. Electricity by 2030” — Highlights the growing electricity demand from AI data centers, underscoring nuclear’s role.
• “Amazon Fuels AI Future with Nuclear Expansion” — Details Amazon’s strategic investments in nuclear to meet AI energy needs.
• “TRISO-X Receives NRC Special Nuclear Material License for Advanced Fuel Fabrication Facility” — Enabling commercial-scale TRISO fuel production.
• “Deep Fission Nuclear Signs Fuel Deal with Urenco USA” — Strengthening domestic enriched uranium supply.
• “Project Vault and Strategic HALEU Stockpiling” — DOE’s initiative to mitigate supply risks.
• “Centrus Energy CEO warns looming 'supply gap' threatens US nuclear resurgence” — Industry warnings emphasizing urgency.
• “Illinois goes all-in on more nuclear power” — State-level industrial policy support.
• “US military airlifts small reactor as Trump pushes to quickly deploy nuclear power” — Defense demand driving HALEU needs.

Together, these developments affirm the strategic imperative and dynamic progress in securing a resilient, sovereign nuclear fuel cycle capable of powering America’s AI-driven future.