Risk-Off Volatility and Rotation Keep Market Direction Unclear

Commentary continues to flag tech and semiconductor weakness, XLK and SMH nearing oversold readings, crowded energy positioning, negative SPY–TLT correlation, and elevated oil. A tactical QQQ/SMH bounce remains conditional on QQQ resistance at $721–$722.52 and VIX below 17.39; verify live breadth, rates, credit, and price action before inferring a trend reversal.