The Escalating Strategic Confrontation Between the US and China in 2024: Technological, Military, and Resource Dynamics

As 2024 unfolds, the geopolitical chess match between the United States and China has reached new heights, marked by unprecedented advancements and confrontations across technological, military, and resource domains. This intensification is shaping a future where competition risks spiraling into systemic instability, with the stakes spanning from global supply chains to regional security architectures.

The Core of the US–China Strategic Rivalry

Rapid Technological Race and Normative Battles

At the heart of this rivalry is a fierce contest for technological dominance. The US remains committed to shaping international norms around AI, cybersecurity, and semiconductor standards. It continues investing billions into next-generation hardware and promoting global governance initiatives aimed at maintaining its leadership position. Notably, the US emphasizes ethical AI development and secure cyber infrastructure as pillars of its strategy.

In response, China accelerates its state-led, long-term push for self-sufficiency and technological sovereignty. Recent developments include:

• Hypersonic weapons demonstrations, such as the CJ-1000 scramjet, capable of Mach 5+ speeds, which threaten existing missile defense systems and escalate regional arms races.
• Nuclear modernization efforts, including expanding its arsenal and conducting tests aimed at creating a more survivable and credible deterrent, intensifying fears of a renewed arms race.
• Broad AI integration into military systems, deploying autonomous platforms and decision-making algorithms that heighten risks of miscalculations—especially in tense hotspots like Taiwan and the South China Sea.

The US counters with massive investments—over $3 trillion into domestic semiconductor manufacturing and AI research—aiming to curtail China's technological rise and shape international standards to prevent a bifurcated digital ecosystem.

Military Modernization and Regional Tensions

Both nations are rapidly enhancing their military capabilities:

• The US is deploying AI-enabled defense systems, expanding missile defense architectures, and modernizing its nuclear forces.
• China emphasizes hypersonic missile deployment, carrier-killer weapons, and AI-powered military assets to project influence and deter adversaries.

This military buildup is fueling regional volatility:

• Taiwan and TSMC: The global semiconductor dependency on Taiwan’s TSMC makes any Chinese move to seize Taiwan or blockade the chip industry a potential catalyst for global economic chaos.
• South China Sea and Indian Ocean: China’s efforts include military bases, missile deployments, and naval patrols in strategic choke points like the Spratly Islands. A recent documentary, "The Ocean War: How China Is Encircling India’s Last Stronghold" (May 2025), highlights China’s naval expansion aimed at diminishing India’s influence and reshaping regional power dynamics.
• US Alliances: Countries such as Japan, Australia, and India are deepening strategic partnerships with the US, escalating counterbalance efforts, yet increasing the risk of misunderstandings and accidental conflicts.

Undersea Warfare and Submarine Standoff

A new frontier has emerged with undersea activities in the South China Sea, involving advanced submarines, undersea drones, and sensor networks. An insightful report titled "The Secret Submarine Game: Inside the Underwater Standoff in the South China Sea" describes how both superpowers are engaged in a high-stakes game of stealth, with monitoring underwater assets proving exceedingly difficult. The gray zone tactics—covert submarine deployments and underwater surveillance—heighten miscalculation risks that could escalate rapidly.

Digital Infrastructure, Resource Control, and Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

The competition extends beyond hardware and military assets into digital sovereignty and resource geopolitics:

• Undersea Cables and Cybersecurity: China’s PEACE cable and other subsea networks are critical links for global data flows. Concerns grow over cyber vulnerabilities, surveillance, and digital sovereignty, especially as these infrastructures could be targeted or compromised.
• Rare-Earth Elements: China maintains a near-monopoly over rare-earth mineral processing, essential for AI hardware, military tech, and green energy. Its diplomatic efforts in Africa, Central Asia, and Latin America bolster its strategic leverage. Recently, Chinese suspension of Venezuelan oil deals signals a shift toward regional influence and resource security.
• Semiconductor Supply Chains: The US’s commitment of $3 trillion toward domestic chip manufacturing and the creation of strategic mineral reserves aims to reduce dependence on China, especially as TSMC’s dominance continues to pose vulnerabilities.

Recent Developments and Emerging Risks

US and China Operational Incidents and Diplomatic Tensions

There have been notable air and sea confrontations in recent months:

• The US has reported Chinese fighter jets tracking F-16s over the Yellow Sea, with tensions escalating as ROC (Taiwan) faces increased mid-air threats.
• Incidents like Chinese patrols near US naval assets and unsanctioned maritime maneuvers have heightened risk of escalation.

Despite these tensions, diplomatic efforts persist. An article titled "Sustaining diplomacy amongst competition in U.S.-China relations" emphasizes the importance of dialogue, confidence-building measures, and norm development to prevent accidental war.

China's Long-Term Strategy: Trade, Diplomacy, and Military Expansion

China’s long-term strategy involves dominating global trade even beyond the Trump era, as detailed in an article from the Taipei Times. Its maritime expansion, resource diplomacy, and technological investments are aimed at creating a resilient, self-sufficient economy capable of countering US sanctions and influence campaigns.

China-Iran Missile Cooperation and Naval Balance

Recent reports reveal China’s cooperation with Iran on missile technology, potentially enhancing Iran’s missile capabilities and impacting naval balance in the Middle East. This collaboration could alter regional security dynamics, supporting China’s strategy to expand influence in critical choke points and counter US presence.

Rethinking US Special Operations Forces (SOF)

Given the complex, multi-domain conflicts, a new article titled "Going on the Offensive: Rethinking US SOF’s Mission Set for the Age of Strategic Competition" argues that U.S. Special Operations Forces must adapt beyond traditional counterterrorism roles. They are increasingly tasked with countering Chinese influence operations, cyber warfare, and covert strategic harassment—requiring new skill sets and operational concepts suited for a multi-domain strategic environment.

Maintaining Military Presence: Carrier Deployments Amid Multipolar Naval Activity

The US continues to deploy carrier strike groups to strategic regions, including the Middle East and Indo-Pacific, amidst multipolar naval activity involving Chinese, Russian, and regional forces. An analysis titled "U.S. Carrier Deployment in the Middle East Amid Iran, Russia & China Naval Activity" emphasizes that maintaining sea control is vital for deterring escalation and projecting power in a rapidly shifting naval balance.

Broader Implications and the Path Forward

The current trajectory presents urgent challenges:

• The absence of comprehensive international treaties on cyber, AI, and nuclear arms increases trust deficits.
• The risk of digital bifurcation—creating separate technological ecosystems—threatens global interoperability and economic stability.
• Regional flashpoints like the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea remain volatile, with misunderstandings potentially triggering conflict.

Experts underscore the critical need for multilateral confidence-building measures, including norms on AI and arms control, to reduce miscalculation risks. Building resilient supply chains and diversifying resource sources are essential steps to mitigate dependencies and buffer against escalation.

Current Status and Outlook

As 2024 progresses, the US and China stand at a crossroads. The US is strengthening alliances, pushing for technological sovereignty, and advocating for normative frameworks. China responds with long-term strategic patience, regional influence, and resource diplomacy to expand its global footprint.

The decisive question remains whether diplomatic engagement and normative cooperation can keep pace with technological and military escalation. Without concerted international efforts, the risks of systemic conflict, global fragmentation, and economic upheaval will intensify, pushing the international order into a more fragmented, competition-driven landscape.

---

In summary, 2024 marks a pivotal year in the US–China rivalry—defined by technological breakthroughs, military assertiveness, and resource geopolitics. The choices made today will influence whether the world advances toward cooperative stability or descends into conflict and fragmentation, underscoring the urgency of establishing norms, building confidence, and creating resilient systems to safeguard global security.