How regional actors leverage great‑power rivalry and control over critical minerals to pursue strategic autonomy

Regional Actors Leveraging Great-Power Rivalry and Critical Minerals for Strategic Autonomy in 2024

Amid the intensifying competition among global powers—particularly the United States, China, and Russia—various regions are actively pursuing strategic autonomy by harnessing their resource endowments and diplomatic leverage. This shift is reshaping the geopolitical landscape, with critical minerals and control over supply chains at the forefront of efforts to assert sovereignty and influence.

The Strategic Significance of Critical Minerals

Modern industries—ranging from electronics and renewable energy to defense systems—depend heavily on rare earth elements, lithium, cobalt, nickel, and seabed minerals. Control over these resources is now a central element of geopolitical power, as access to them directly influences technological sovereignty and military capability.

China's dominance in this domain remains formidable. It controls approximately 60–70% of global rare earth processing and has established overseas resource investments across Africa (e.g., Zambia, Zimbabwe, Guinea), Latin America (Chile, Brazil), and Southeast Asia (Myanmar, Malaysia). Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) further consolidates its strategic resource corridors, creating dependencies that serve China's long-term interests.

In contrast, Western countries are diversifying supply sources and investing in domestic mining, processing infrastructure, recycling technologies, and alternative materials to reduce reliance on Chinese-controlled supply chains. Initiatives like the Biden administration's commitment of over $10 billion toward strategic mineral reserves exemplify this push for technological sovereignty and supply chain resilience.

Emerging Frontiers in Resource Competition

Recent developments highlight new battlegrounds:

• Undersea and Arctic Resources: Melting ice in the Arctic opens access to vast deposits of rare earths and strategic metals, with Greenland emerging as a key player. Countries are racing to establish rights over seabed minerals—manganese nodules, cobalt-rich crusts—managed increasingly through the International Seabed Authority (ISA), amid rising geopolitical competition.

• Maritime Choke Points and Undersea Infrastructure: Control over undersea cables, shipping lanes, and military bases in strategic maritime zones (e.g., South China Sea, Indian Ocean) is critical. China's artificial islands and military bases challenge Western maritime influence, raising the stakes for control over maritime chokepoints.

• African and Latin American Resources: Countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are central to the global cobalt supply. Recently, the DRC offered tantalum deposits—used in electronics and defense—to the U.S. in a strategic minerals pact, aiming to diversify supply chains and enhance regional bargaining power. Similarly, Latin America—especially Brazil and Argentina—are navigating U.S.–China rivalry by balancing partnerships to maximize sovereignty.

The Role of Technology and Supply Chain Decoupling

Technological competition, particularly in semiconductors, AI, and cybersecurity, is intertwined with resource geopolitics. The race for advanced microchips exemplifies this:

• China’s breakthrough in developing 2nm chips independently in 2024 signals a significant stride toward technological sovereignty. This development narrows the gap with Western semiconductor leaders and bolsters China’s military and civilian technological capabilities.

• The U.S. has responded by advancing domestic semiconductor manufacturing through the CHIPS Act and Defense Production Act, aiming to decouple from Chinese supply chains and ensure industrial resilience.

Meanwhile, recycling and alternative materials are gaining attention as strategies to mitigate resource dependencies, though challenges remain in scaling these solutions rapidly.

Geopolitical Tensions and Incidents

The competition over strategic resources has manifested in confrontations and diplomatic tensions:

• The Arabian Sea naval standoff (2024) between U.S. and Chinese vessels underscores the rising risk of conflict over maritime zones and resource-rich areas.

• China’s development of undersea resource extraction technologies and military capabilities in contested zones like the South China Sea and Indian Ocean further amplify the strategic stakes.

• Diplomatic efforts, such as the U.S.-Philippines energy and security pact, aim to secure energy resources and maritime stability in the face of Chinese assertiveness.

Regional Actors as Active Players

Many regions are transforming external rivalry into opportunities for enhanced sovereignty:

• Kazakhstan exemplifies multi-vector diplomacy, balancing ties with Russia, China, and Western nations to maximize strategic flexibility. Its integration into China's Belt and Road and security cooperation with Russia exemplify strategic diversification.

• Africa’s resource-rich nations are leveraging external patronage—be it China, Russia, or Western powers—to bargain better terms and avoid dependency. The DRC’s mineral diplomacy, including offering strategic deposits to the U.S., exemplifies this approach.

• Latin America is navigating a delicate balance, engaging with both China and the U.S. to diversify partnerships and assert regional sovereignty amid Washington–Beijing rivalry.

The Future Outlook

The competition over critical minerals and supply chains will remain a defining feature of geopolitical rivalry:

• Control over resources like lithium, cobalt, and seabed minerals will influence regional influence, technological development, and military power.

• The race for technological dominance, exemplified by breakthroughs like China’s 2nm chips, will determine global influence in emerging domains such as AI and cybersecurity.

• Maritime and undersea domains will increasingly become flashpoints, requiring diplomatic management to prevent escalation.

• Regional actors are increasingly proactive, using external rivalries to strengthen sovereignty through resource diplomacy, infrastructure investments, and strategic diversification.

In this evolving landscape, the global order is becoming more multipolar and fragmented, with local agency playing a decisive role in shaping the future of international stability and influence.

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In summary, the interplay of great-power rivalry and control over critical minerals is transforming regions into active strategists of their own sovereignty. Through resource diplomacy, technological innovation, and strategic infrastructure investments, regional actors are turning systemic turbulence into opportunities for strategic autonomy—a trend that is reshaping global geopolitics well into the coming decades.