FOMC Rate Watch

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stressed that inflation remains elevated and has not meaningfully improved despite the first rate hike in three years.

• The...

The unanimous 25bp hike to 3.75%-4% moves the Fed from a largely priced-in adjustment to a broader tightening path.

• Projections update: 16 of 18...

The September 2026 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections includes participants' forecasts for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for...

Retail sales jumped +1.2% in August, well above the +0.8% consensus, while import prices rose +0.7% versus +0.4% expected. These hotter readings point...

Senator Warren claims Trump's tariffs and Iran policies are driving inflation, forcing the Fed to consider rate hikes rather than cuts. She argues this blocks lower borrowing costs for families ahead of the September FOMC decision.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.08% yesterday, crossing the key psychological threshold amid expectations of a small Fed rate hike...

Gold prices remain little changed at $4,300.96 as markets await the Fed's policy decision for clues on the future rate path. The metal touched a one-month low the prior session amid heavy bets on a quarter-point move.

Wall Street prices a 90% chance the Fed raises rates this week amid sticky inflation.

• Bonds: Yields in the 5-6% range offer attractive income,...

Markets have sharply priced in a 25bp rate hike at this week's FOMC, with 10-year Treasury yields hitting 5.03% and equities retreating ahead of the...

Today's meeting (Sep 15–16) includes the dot plot and projections, with the rate decision dropping at 2:00 PM ET.

• Policy statement and vote...

• Market pricing shows 91.5% odds of a 25bp hike to 4% this week, yet analysts still forecast steady rates ahead.
• Policy risks center on AI...

• Markets now price an 88-90% chance of a 25bp hike at the Sept. 16 FOMC after hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI prints.
• Trump reiterated calls for...

Major banks now price in a Fed rate hike next week, with Bank of America expecting 75 bps after August CPI rose 0.4%.

• Bitcoin's long/short ratio hit...

Fed Fund futures directly reflect collective marketplace insight regarding the future course of Federal Reserve monetary policy.

• Odds of a Sept. 16 rate hike surged from 48% in August to 85-90% after core CPI rose 0.3% MoM versus 0.2% expected
• Higher oil prices and sticky...

Post-CPI data lifted Fed hike odds sharply to 88-91% for the September meeting, yet immediate market reactions diverged across asset classes.

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August data shows core inflation holding at 2.4% YoY with energy prices surging, tilting the Fed's September calculus toward action.

• CPI rose 0.4%...

• Hotter-than-expected CPI data lifted the odds of a Fed rate hike at the Sept. 15-16 meeting to nearly 90%, with economists now forecasting a 0.25...

• 30-year fixed mortgage rates reached 6.97% on Sep. 11, up 0.06% in a day, with jumbo loans at 7.1%.
• Markets now price a 71.3% chance of a Fed rate...

• Strong hiring data: Payrolls far exceeded the 65,000 forecast, raising hopes a resilient economy will keep the Fed from hiking rates in September
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