FOMC Rate Watch

• Yields spike after hold: 30-year Treasury reached 5.27% (19-year high) and 10-year hit 4.75% following the 9-3 July 29 decision with three dissents...

The July FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75% on a 9-3 vote, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissenting for a 0.25% hike—the most dissent in a decade and...

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is moving away from detailed forward guidance toward greater market discretion and structural changes.

• Criticism mounts:...

Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson backs the current 3.5%-3.75% rate target as mildly restrictive yet signals readiness to adjust if inflation...

JPMorgan strategist Kriti Gupta targets 8,200 for the S&P 500 by mid-2027, implying 9.5% upside from July levels.

• Key thesis: Higher rates alone...

Warsh has scrapped forward guidance, urging markets to "play the ball, not the referee" and react directly to data instead.

• Bond markets reacted...

Warsh's July press conference drew sharp criticism for weak forward guidance and shifting inflation signals, leaving markets uncertain about the Fed's...

Manufacturing's pricing volatility worse than the pandemic era is a fresh data point tilting the Fed toward a September rate hike. The ISM July prices...

Fed's John Williams stated the central bank will raise rates if needed to hit its 2% inflation target. This hawkish stance reinforces the higher-for-longer outlook for markets.

Kevin Warsh faces simultaneous pressure to restore market trust and overhaul Fed governance.

• Communication breakdown: His evasive press conference...

New York Fed President John Williams expressed confidence that inflation will return to the 2% target, calling current policy "well positioned" while...

July FOMC outcome amplified uncertainty while raising rate hike odds, which could favor short-duration fixed income positioning.

• Equity rebound: S&P 500 rose 1.06% to new highs as Microsoft and Amazon surged 16% and 15% on strong AI-driven cloud growth, rewarding proven...

The Fed held rates steady with minimal guidance, prompting markets to price in a higher-for-longer environment.

• Yields surged as the 30-year broke...

Citadel is making a strategic wager that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at Wednesday's meeting, revealing a contrarian stance amid policy uncertainty.

• Citadel bets on a surprise July 29 hike as a tactical move by Chair Warsh to reset policy credibility, not data-driven.
• Markets and bitcoin...

Warsh has proposed cutting FOMC policy meetings from eight to six per year, with two additional sessions for economic topics, marking a significant...

The July FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75% despite three dissenters pushing for a hike and 35-38% market odds of tightening.

• Williams stays optimistic...

• Kalshi market assigns 87 cents to exactly zero Fed cuts in 2026 after five holds.
• AI panel sees 59% chance of at least one cut, with median path...

The Fed's July 29 hold at 3.5%-3.75% with three dissents favoring a hike sent mixed signals that tightened conditions without action.

• Bond yields...