Jackson Hole Speech as Key Catalyst

Fed Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech is the next major event. Multiple previews indicate market pricing 55% chance of a hike this year, and Warsh is expected to offer little guidance given his low-transparency style. Yields have eased slightly ahead of the speech, but bond market anxiety is high. Warsh faces five critical questions on forward guidance, bond market anxiety, inflation, regime change, and communication style. The bond market is ignoring Treasury buyback support, raising stakes. The week also includes Nvidia earnings, GDP revision, and Core PCE data.