Market Impact: Yield Spike, USD Positioning, and Rate Hike Expectations

30-year Treasury yield hit 5.27%, a 19-year high, as traders price in a September hike. USD long positioning is stretched, with DBS warning of sharp unwind if Fed sounds less hawkish. Carry trades at risk. A structural shift in real rates is emerging: forecasters keep revising up the expected rate path while assuming a return to old lows, and neutral rates are rising globally, suggesting markets may be mispricing persistence.