European and Australian Populist Realignment

Saxony-Anhalt exit polls place the AfD just short of an absolute Landtag majority, making coalition arithmetic, BSW participation, and CDU willingness to maintain its firewall decisive. The result could mark a state-level breakthrough for Germany’s far right and has implications for Merz’s CDU; France’s RN, Sweden Democrats, Australia’s One Nation, and Italy’s Vannacci-linked Futuro Nazionale show wider populist pressure.