Trump & Great Power Watch

Trump calibrates tough rhetoric to deter Iran and shape domestic narratives without crossing into nuclear escalation.

• He explicitly ruled out...

2026年亚洲对话显示，特朗普第二任期下美国对亚太选择性撤退，中国则扩展安全角色，迫使中层国家重新校准。

• 多重对齐与对冲：东南亚国家优先生存与稳定，通过与澳、日、韩等中层国家多样化伙伴关系，避免二元选择。
• 迷你多边机制：利用非约束性合作实现威慑与自主，制造战略摩擦以防大国主导。
• 对话空间：区域专家借此类平台评估2035年权力分布，降低误判风险。

China's envoy flagged serious concerns and future consequences over Taiwan's visible role at the Pacific Islands Forum in Palau, marking a clear...

US anxiety over AI breaking free and hacking systems fuels debate on risks, while China sees little alarm and prioritizes benefits under state control, as shown by Z.ai's near-Silicon Valley model for hacking and coding.

Trump's 50% tariffs on Canadian goods and threats against autos highlight risks even for close allies, prompting governments to seek alternatives....

Taiwan's Han Kuang drills signal a clear move to asymmetric warfare, with forces practicing dispersed ambushes and urban defense instead of scripted...

米尔斯海默指出，冷战后美国主导的单极时刻已结束，世界重回中美俄三强竞争格局。 西方政策精英却仍以单极假设行事，低估均势政治，试图将影响力扩展至他国核心利益区。

这导致对俄政策从遏制转向回滚，激化乌克兰冲突；对伊朗的军事升级风险同样失控，核威慑下大国安全关切无法忽视。 美国处理中国、俄乌及中东事务需正视多极现实，否则升级风险将持续上升。

The latest US sanctions legislation seeks to constrain Russia's economic resources and war capabilities in Ukraine. Details on whether this shifts the conflict's cost structure await fuller analysis from experts like Maia Nikoladze.

US strikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guard sites in the Strait of Hormuz risk tying down American forces in the Persian Gulf for the foreseeable...

特朗普在Fox News访谈中反复强调伊朗若获核武将摧毁以色列，称其为“失败国家”，以此为美对伊封锁与经济施压提供核心正当性。

• 核意图定性：特朗普断言伊朗已展现使用核武意愿，防止其拥核是冲突首要理由。
• 封锁成效叙事：特朗普称美军封锁“不可思议”，已重创伊朗，无需协议即可宣称胜利。
• 战略延续：最新荷莫兹海峡冲突后，特朗普仍坚持军事经济双轨施压，淡化外交框架。

Frequent China–US trade frictions, regional conflicts, sanctions, and energy security events are now tightly linked to oil price shocks and geopolitical risk.

US-Taiwan relations are accelerating integration across industry and defense.

• US diplomat says ties "never been stronger" as Taiwan drives record...

中国10年期国债收益率逼近1.65%低点，而美债30年期收益率徘徊在5.3%附近高位。 沃什鹰派表态强化美债压力，凸显中美经济周期差异，投资者正寻求美债以外的多元化配置。

Under Xi Jinping, China's foreign policy has oscillated from a proactive first-term approach that forced U.S. reactions to a reactive posture after...

Taiwan's stock exchange is actively broadening investor focus from TSMC's outsized role—nearly 40% of the TAIEX—to the island's full AI supply chain...

Trump's new Iran pressure extends his style of personal threats and transactional deals.

• Six months of conflict has raised gas prices, pushing up...

Despite US attention diverted by the expired Iran deal and stalled diplomacy, Ukraine's adaptations make a Belarus-based Russian offensive unlikely to...

China has enacted its first major overhaul of the National Defense Mobilization Law since 2010, creating clearer rules for shifting society and...

• Refined crunch dominates: Crude prices stabilized near $90/barrel, but diesel cracks spiked over $100/barrel as Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions cut...

The Trump administration's potential dispatch of a Cabinet-level official to Taipei for the Taiwan Relations Act's 40th anniversary would mark another...