Fragile 2-week ceasefire: Trump pause post-deadline, Iran 10-pt maximalist, Hormuz reopen push
Key Questions
What is the current status of the ceasefire between the US and Iran?
A fragile 2-week ceasefire was agreed via the Pakistan-mediated Islamabad Accord, with Trump suspending an 8pm ultimatum for strikes. Both sides claim victory, but attacks persist, and odds of success are around 50% ahead of Friday talks in Islamabad.
What is the Islamabad Accord?
The Islamabad Accord is a 14-day truce brokered by Pakistan, involving US suspension of strikes and IRGC coordination for Strait of Hormuz fees and reopening. It came just after Trump's deadline.
What does Iran's 10-point ceasefire plan include?
Iran's 10-point plan is a maximalist proposal for a permanent ceasefire, demanding full sanctions lift and US withdrawal. It counters the temporary truce and is unlikely to be accepted by the US.
Why did Trump pause the strikes?
Trump suspended strikes an hour before his 8pm deadline following the Islamabad Accord, aiming for a 2-week truce and Hormuz reopening. The US military remains ready to resume if diplomacy fails.
Are attacks continuing despite the ceasefire?
Yes, some attacks persist even as both sides declare victory. Netanyahu has exempted Lebanon from certain actions.
What role did Pakistan play in the ceasefire?
Pakistan mediated the Islamabad Accord as announced by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, facilitating the 14-day truce between the US and Iran.
What are the next steps in the ceasefire talks?
Upcoming talks are scheduled for Friday in Islamabad. A 45-day ceasefire proposal has also been discussed but rejected by Trump as insufficient.
How has the ceasefire affected oil prices?
Oil prices have dipped to $95-100 per barrel from previous highs of $108-111, driven by ceasefire hopes and potential Hormuz reopening despite ongoing risks.
Trump suspended 8pm ultimatum strikes via Pakistan Islamabad Accord (14d truce+Hormuz IRGC coord/fees); Iran counters 10-pt permanent (sanctions lift/withdrawal); both claim victory but attacks persist, Netanyahu exempts Lebanon. Odds ~50%; Islamabad Fri talks. Oil dips $95-100.