Poleward range shifts, predator interactions (great whites & orcas), Arctic/Antarctic residency, and implications for ecosystems and human-wildlife conflict

The accelerating poleward shifts and new year-round residencies of apex marine predators—particularly great white sharks (Carcharodon carcharias) and orcas (Orcinus orca)—are reshaping marine ecosystems in both polar regions and temperate waters worldwide. Groundbreaking observations confirm that these predators are not only expanding their ranges but also increasingly co-occurring, forming novel apex predator guilds with profound ecological and socio-economic implications.

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Confirmed Poleward Expansions and Year-Round Residency in Polar Waters

Great white sharks have been definitively confirmed as year-round residents in Antarctic waters, a milestone marked in February 2026 by the first-ever visual footage of great whites beneath ice shelves near the Antarctic Peninsula. This evidence corroborates earlier satellite telemetry data and overturns previous assumptions that Antarctic waters were too cold and isolated for such large predatory sharks. The southward range expansion is tightly linked to warming Southern Ocean temperatures and retreating sea ice, which have driven prey species such as seals, penguins, and cold-water fish further south, creating new foraging opportunities for great whites.

Simultaneously, orcas have established permanent, year-round populations in the Arctic and sub-Arctic, fully integrating into these rapidly changing ecosystems. Orca pods have been documented breaching near melting ice shelves in Greenland and extending their range into temperate zones such as Algoa Bay, South Africa, underscoring their remarkable adaptability to shifting oceanographic conditions.

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Novel Apex Predator Guilds: Co-Occurrence of Great Whites and Orcas

The overlapping expansions of orcas and great white sharks into polar and temperate waters are fostering new apex predator guilds. Observations of type B orcas co-occurring with great whites in Antarctic waters mirror similar Arctic dynamics where these predators target overlapping prey species.

These guilds are not merely coexisting but engaging in complex ecological interactions:

• Orcas demonstrate cultural innovations in hunting, including coordinated attacks on commercial vessels in the North Atlantic and novel predation techniques such as inducing tonic immobility in Greenland sharks.
• Great white sharks exhibit behavioral plasticity, adapting with nocturnal foraging in kelp forests off California and shallow-water incursions near tourist beaches, increasing human-wildlife encounters.
• Interactions between these apex predators influence behavior and habitat use, with studies showing great whites modify their hunting strategies or temporarily avoid areas of orca presence.

These evolving dynamics are restructuring food webs, with documented declines in narwhal populations (~30%) and heightened predation pressure on ringed seals and Greenland sharks in the Arctic, signaling potentially cascading trophic effects.

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Life-Stage Movements, Nursery Sites, and Cross-Border Connectivity

Advances in satellite telemetry, acoustic monitoring (PAM), and drone/AUV surveillance powered by AI have revolutionized understanding of predator ecology:

• Juvenile great whites such as Penny have been tracked migrating between nurseries in the Gulf of Mexico and offshore feeding grounds, highlighting critical habitat connectivity.
• Newly discovered nurseries off southern California and Mediterranean refuges near Cres Island demonstrate diverse life-stage habitat use across regions.
• Cross-border migrations spanning U.S., Canadian, and international waters emphasize the need for multinational cooperation and adaptive management to protect migratory corridors.
• Nearshore telemetry hotspots like Daytona Beach, Florida, and La Jolla Cove, California, reveal zones of high juvenile site fidelity with significant overlap with human recreational activities, complicating conservation and public safety efforts.

Community science platforms such as SharkSmart empower real-time reporting of tagged individuals, enhancing data resolution and public engagement.

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Ecological and Human-Wildlife Conflict Implications

The poleward expansions and overlapping ranges of great whites and orcas have intensified human-wildlife conflicts:

• Increased sightings of great whites in shallow coastal waters near popular beaches—from Florida to South Africa—have raised public safety concerns.
• A viral video captured a massive great white swimming near a tourist hotspot, highlighting the proximity of these predators to human activity.
• Fatal shark attacks, such as those in New South Wales and New Caledonia in 2026, spurred reactive measures including culling and swimming bans, often igniting contentious debates balancing conservation and safety.
• Orca coordinated attacks on commercial vessels in the North Atlantic add a novel dimension of marine human-wildlife conflict, with these behaviors linked to socially learned cultural repertoires.
• Indigenous Arctic communities report disruptions to subsistence hunting due to rising orca presence, underscoring the need to integrate Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) into governance frameworks.

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Technological Innovations Enhancing Monitoring and Mitigation

Cutting-edge technologies are critical tools in understanding and managing these dynamic predator shifts:

• Passive Acoustic Monitoring (PAM) networks across polar regions enable near real-time detection of orca vocalizations and social behaviors.

• Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) and drones equipped with AI provide detailed, non-invasive observations of predator movements and behaviors, including nocturnal foraging patterns.

• Satellite telemetry continues to map long-distance migrations and cross-jurisdictional habitat use.

• Conflict mitigation technologies show promise:

  • Electrical shark deterrents, tested in Australian fisheries, reduce bycatch and gear loss.
  • Zinc-graphite coated fishing hooks deployed in Florida effectively repel sharks without harming target species.
  • Strategic lighting solutions developed at Arizona State University minimize human-shark encounters in coastal hotspots.

These tools, combined with community science and Indigenous participation, support adaptive management that balances ecosystem health with human safety.

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Management and Governance Implications: Toward Adaptive, Cross-Jurisdictional Stewardship

The rapidly evolving predator landscape demands innovative governance approaches that are:

• Adaptive and ecosystem-based, reflecting climate-driven habitat shifts and dynamic predator-prey relationships.
• Cross-jurisdictional, given migratory corridors that span national boundaries and international waters.
• Inclusive of Traditional Ecological Knowledge alongside scientific data to respect Indigenous rights and harness local expertise.
• Focused on targeted Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and migratory corridors that prioritize critical nurseries and feeding grounds for apex predators.
• Integrated with vessel traffic management to reduce disturbance and conflict.
• Supportive of conflict mitigation technologies to minimize negative human-wildlife interactions and economic losses.

The upcoming COP15 biodiversity summit in Brazil (2026) has spotlighted these issues, with commitments to develop flexible, culturally informed policies that address emerging apex predator guilds and their socio-ecological ramifications.

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Conclusion

The confirmed year-round Antarctic residency of great white sharks, the permanent Arctic presence of orcas, and their expanding co-occurrence are driving transformative changes in marine ecosystems. These novel apex predator guilds, combined with sophisticated behavioral adaptations and cultural innovations, are reshaping food webs and intensifying human-wildlife conflicts.

Advances in telemetry, AI-driven monitoring, and community engagement provide unprecedented insight and tools for coexistence. However, the complexity of these shifts calls for integrated, collaborative, and adaptive governance that bridges science, technology, Indigenous knowledge, and stakeholder participation.

As climate change accelerates, safeguarding the resilience of marine ecosystems and the communities that depend on them hinges on our ability to understand and manage these dynamic apex predators as central architects of ocean health in the Anthropocene.

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Key References and Examples:

• February 2026 footage confirming Antarctic great white residency beneath ice shelves.
• Penny the juvenile great white’s tracked Gulf of Mexico migration.
• Orcas breaching near Greenland ice shelves and coordinated vessel attacks in the North Atlantic.
• Declines in narwhal (~30%) and ringed seal populations linked to predation pressure.
• Florida tests showing zinc-graphite shields repel sharks from fishing hooks.
• Community outreach including Leigh de Necker’s TEDx talk “Sharks, Fear & Responsibility” and Giulia Hettwer’s “The Misunderstood World of Sharks”.
• Controversies following fatal shark attacks in New Caledonia and New South Wales.
• Calls from Indigenous leaders like Aqqaluk Lynge for TEK integration.
• COP15’s focus on adaptive, multinational marine conservation frameworks.

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This synthesis underscores the urgent need to view apex predator range shifts and interactions as integrated phenomena requiring holistic, forward-looking stewardship in a warming ocean world.