Macro & Fed Policy: Stuck Between Inflation and Growth

Fed stuck at 3.50-3.75% with hawkish dissenters. Rate hike odds for September plunged to 25% on soft CPI, but energy costs surging (gasoline +27% YoY) and ISM manufacturing at 55.6. 30-year yield near 5.31%, record margin debt $1.5T. Consumer sentiment plunges to 51, inflation expectations rise to 4.3%. BMO offers contrarian view: unit labor costs at 1.4% and productivity firm may allow Fed to hold.