Long-term Treasury yields surge, bond market warns of higher-for-longer

The 30-year yield spiked above 5.2% after the Fed meeting, with term premium rising and bond volatility (VXTLT) diverging from equity volatility (VIX). The Fed's lack of pushback on higher long-end rates signals a regime shift. However, the oil plunge on Iran de-escalation has pulled yields lower, though they remain elevated. Bull/bear case analysis highlights the 30-year yield at a near-two-decade peak, with implications for equity valuations and retirement portfolios.