Fed Yield Curve Digest

FOMC Decision and Powell Remarks

• Policy Decision and Dot Plots: Federal Reserve released policy decision, dot plot projections, and market...

• Hawkish PPI surprise reinforces Fed caution: +0.7% M/M vs. +0.3% expected, amid Powell's higher-for-longer stance.
• Middle East risks misjudged by...

IRS Notice 2026-19 announces the March corporate bond monthly yield curve, 24-month average segment rates, and 30-year Treasury interest rates – key benchmarks for retirement portfolios and tax-deferred bond strategies.

For retirement portfolios navigating Fed policy, shorten bond duration: shorter maturities are less sensitive to rate changes, and their prices won't fall as much as long-term bonds when rates rise.

• Rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% as expected, no cuts until Oct/Dec per traders
• Iran war drives oil spike, complicating inflation (>2% target) and...

Tail risk warning: 10-year Treasury yields could hit 6% by 2026 due to elevated inflation expectations and term premium normalization. Retirement portfolios: Monitor breakevens and term premiums to brace for long-end surges.

Inflation Data

• 🔥 Core PCE at 3.1% Y/Y: Core PCE inflation rose 3.1% Y/Y in January, a touch hotter than expected, with a 0.36% or 0.4% M/M...

March FOMC Timeline:

• Pre-meeting data/speeches: Empire State Manufacturing, NAHB Index, Barr, SF Fed's Mary
• FOMC announces rate cut
• Powell's...

20-year Treasury yields extended lower after the auction, dropping 2.1 basis points to 4.813%. The long-end rally lifts bond prices, a boon for retirement portfolios holding duration amid easing supply pressures.

• 10Y yield spikes to 4.28%, signaling stress as China, Japan, UK reduce US debt holdings
• Japan, largest holder, ends ultra-cheap capital via rate...

• Shift in expectations: Surge in oil prices has led markets to price fewer rate cuts; Dec Fed funds futures at 3.4%, matching prior median.
• Dot...

• Portfolio adjustment underway, with 10Y Treasury yield as key anchor
• Fed on pause and long-term yields steady
• Defensive assets like...

• Manufacturing resilience: Feb Industrial Production beat at +0.2%, offsetting NY Empire State Index slip
• Growth down, inflation up: Q4 2025 GDP...

Federal Reserve policy faces a critical test as Fed whisperer weighs in ahead of FOMC decision and press conference at 2:00 PM.

Retirees overlook VCIT's edge over cash: 4.73% monthly yield from 5-10y investment-grade corporates, $68.5B AUM, 0.03% ER.

• Rate-cut upside: Bonds...

Growth softens sharply as BEA slashes Q4 2025 GDP to 0.7%, signaling economic brake.

• Yet core PCE hits 3.1% Y/Y in January, hotter than expected...

• Hawkish warning: Ex-Fed's Thomas Hoenig flags oil shock risks to financial stability, oil-driven inflation, and stagflation return, plus Treasury...

Geopolitical risks reshape Fed outlook:

• Fed policy frozen despite weak jobs, as war risks rise
• Elevated oil and disruptions limit response,...

Treasury yields fell in early trade, with 10-year note down 4 bps to 4.24%, reversing last week's 15 bps surge to multi-week highs. Markets now focus...

Recent data reveals a resilient-yet-slowing US economy amid inflation:

• Q4 GDP revised down to 0.7% from a "perfect storm" of disruptions
• 2026...