2026 Momentum Could Offset September Weakness
Strong 2026 YTD gains of 12.8% and a positive August have historically produced average September gains of 1% for the S&P 500, with the final four...
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Strong 2026 YTD gains of 12.8% and a positive August have historically produced average September gains of 1% for the S&P 500, with the final four...
SPY closed at $771.10, within 1% of its 52-week high of $779.37 and well above the $627.66 low.
SPY's opening decline transmits clear macro risks: Brent crude surged +5.6% amid resumed Middle East fighting, Treasury yields rose ahead of the Fed,...
AI infrastructure spending of $500B-$750B annually is nearly the only factor keeping the US economy afloat, suggesting limited scope to sustainably lift SPY earnings and valuations.
Nvidia's post-close earnings tonight stand as the quarter's most consequential event for SPY, acting as a direct proxy for the AI trade's momentum and...
S&P 500 profit growth is highly concentrated in energy and AI infrastructure, with most sectors showing weaker fundamentals.
The Leading Economic Index saw its six-month growth rate turn positive for the first time in four years, suggesting bond market selloffs may not be as alarming for SPY as they appear.
SPY pulled in $7.68B of inflows for the week ended August 21 even as its price fell 0.90%, while eight of 11 sectors saw outflows. The divergence highlights continued broad-market buying amid sector rotation.
764 becomes SPY's key pivot after a 2.3 million share dark pool fill at 763.96, acting as resistance then support throughout Monday and expected to control the range all week.
Treasury buybacks aim to add liquidity in longer-dated bonds, with Bessent confirming regular auctions will proceed unchanged and operations starting...
Nvidia's Wednesday earnings face a key test on hyperscaler dependence, as their capex erodes cash flow while ACIE diversification lags. Weakness here could pressure SPY's heavy tech exposure.
SPY trades at $765.72, 7% above its GF Value intrinsic estimate of $715.63, pointing to modest overvaluation.
Global liquidity levels remain high but underlying creation has stalled, with risk assets already rotating away from higher-risk Asian markets. This macro shift could create near-term pressure on SPY.
Rising bond yields are weighing on equities, with the S&P 500 down 1.4% for the week and SPY losing 0.29% on Monday. Tech led the decline as QQQ fell...