Macro Data and Fed Policy

Q2 GDP missed at 1.5% vs 2.0%, core PCE eased to 3.3%, Fed held, Kevin Warsh hawkish. Long-term Treasury yields surged after Fed meeting with no pushback, 30-year yield breaking out. Bond yields at 4.74% (10Y) and 5.27% (30Y) seen as ceiling for SPY. Upcoming jobs report is key catalyst. Fed divide widens: dissenters push for rate hikes (Hammack), September hike odds at 65%, challenging soft-landing.