30-Year Yield Structural Shift

SPY remains exposed to sharply elevated long-term yields, with the 10-year Treasury recently dipping below 5% as crude fell but the 30-year still near 5.25%–5.30%. Fiscal issuance, refinancing needs, term premium, weak duration demand, the estimated $1.5 trillion basis trade, and possible hyperscaler AI-debt issuance could sustain pressure on long-duration growth valuations even if the Fed pauses.