Recession risk warning
Key Questions
What factors are raising recession risk warnings?
Wealth concentration, extreme AI valuations, and sticky inflation could trigger a downturn according to new bearish overlays.
What drawdown does Jeremy Grantham predict?
Grantham warns of a potential 70% drawdown due to these concentrated risks and limited Fed flexibility.
How could the jobs report act as a catalyst?
The June BLS jobs report may trigger volatility and challenge the bullish rotation narrative amid elevated recession odds.
A new bearish overlay emerges: wealth concentration, extreme AI-driven valuations, and sticky inflation could trigger a recession. Jeremy Grantham warns of a 70% drawdown. Fed has limited room to cut rates. This challenges the bullish rotation narrative. June BLS jobs report tomorrow could be a catalyst. NFP scenarios: MAGS recovery above 66, QQQ rug pull, financials/healthcare leading.
Sources (2)
Updated Jul 2, 2026