Macro: sticky inflation/Fed hold amid oil/supply-chain shock [climaxing]
Key Questions
What eases stagflation concerns currently?
Oil backwardation signals temporary surge, NFP +178k, unemp 4.3%, despite gas over $4 in states.
What are recent economic indicators?
ISM Services 54.0 with prices 70.7%, Mfg 52.7 prices 78.3%, PPI 3.4%; health added +76k jobs.
What is the Fed's current stance?
Holding at 3.75%, with Goolsbee prioritizing inflation, dovish Williams, Warsh speech Apr 16.
What yields and upcoming data?
Yields at 4.354%+, CPI Friday, FOMC mins Apr 8; recession odds 26.6-49% down on strong data.
How does oil shock affect Fed policy?
Backwardated curve suggests short-lived impact, but stagflation squeeze from war pressures services re-rating.
What did ISM reports show?
Services PMI at 54% with jumping prices but employment dumps; mfg expansion hits inflation wall.
Why is recession odds declining?
String of better-than-expected data like jobs beat reduces odds sharply.
What are Fed officials' recent comments?
Goolsbee warns against undermining Fed independence; balance sheet shrinkage desirable but slow.
Stagflation watch eases on oil backwardation temp/NFP178k/unemp4.3%/health+76k/ISM Serv54.0 prices70.7%/mfg52.7 prices78.3%/PPI3.4%; Fed hold3.75%/Goolsbee infl-first/Warsh Apr16/dovish Williams; yields4.354%+/CPI Fri/FOMC Apr8; rec odds26.6-49%.