Post-Ceasefire Gaza: Navigating Fragility, Regional Shifts, and Diplomatic Challenges Toward Sustainable Peace

The fragile ceasefire initiated in Gaza in October 2025 has temporarily halted over a year of relentless violence, offering a rare window of opportunity amid a deeply entrenched crisis. While this pause has allowed international and regional players to pivot toward diplomatic initiatives and humanitarian relief, the underlying political, security, and institutional challenges remain formidable. Recent developments underscore both the potential for progress and the risks that threaten to undermine fragile gains, illustrating the complex path toward lasting peace.

Fragile Governance and Political Fragmentation in Gaza

Despite the formation of a technocratic committee tasked with stabilizing Gaza and overseeing reconstruction efforts, its authority remains contested and limited. Hamas's continued military influence complicates these efforts, as the group resolutely refuses disarmament and perceives international pressures—such as the 60-day disarmament ultimatum—as coercive. This stance has fueled mistrust among other stakeholders and deepened divisions within Gaza’s political landscape.

Meanwhile, the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank faces a severe fiscal crisis, unable to meet financial obligations or sustain essential services. This economic deterioration erodes the PA’s legitimacy and risks deepening intra-Palestinian divisions, potentially marginalizing its authority and complicating efforts to coordinate a unified Palestinian front for peace and reconstruction. Such fragmentation threatens the cohesive governance necessary for sustainable peace and reconciliation.

The Role of Palestinian Technocrats

In this context, Palestinian technocrats are increasingly seen as potential agents to lead aid distribution and infrastructure rebuilding, aiming to bypass factional disputes. However, their legitimacy remains contested by Hamas and other factions, limiting their operational capacity. Success in empowering these technocrats could bolster the credibility and effectiveness of reconstruction, but failure risks aid politicization, diversion, and further erosion of trust.

International Diplomacy: Promises, Skepticism, and New Initiatives

The international community, through the ‘Board of Peace’ phased stabilization plan, has pledged over $7 billion for Gaza’s reconstruction and declared that “the Gaza conflict is over.” The plan envisions phased approaches involving humanitarian aid, security stabilization, and political reconciliation, with high-profile participation including former U.S. President Donald Trump.

However, deep skepticism persists, rooted in the entrenched mistrust:

• Hamas’s rejection of disarmament deadlines signals its distrust of international pressures, viewing them as attempts to diminish its influence.
• The deployment of a five-country international security force aims to prevent renewed violence but faces critical questions regarding mandate, legitimacy, and operational capacity. An official emphasized that success hinges on clear authority, local acceptance, and preparedness—but many Palestinians perceive foreign troops as potential occupiers, risking resentment and further destabilization.

Security Force Deployment: Opportunities and Challenges

The effectiveness of the proposed security force remains uncertain. Key questions include:

• Will it enforce ceasefire violations and disarm armed groups?
• Or will it serve merely as an observer, lacking enforcement power?

Given Gaza’s extensive infrastructure damage, logistical hurdles, and the influence of armed factions, its capacity to maintain stability is questionable. Critics warn that without a well-defined, legitimate mandate, the force risks becoming symbolic, or worse, exacerbating tensions if perceived as an external imposition.

Soft Power and Cultural Diplomacy in Focus

In a notable shift, FIFA has partnered with the ‘Board of Peace’ to leverage the upcoming World Cup in the United States as a platform for peacebuilding. This initiative aims to foster trust, dialogue, and inclusion through sports, providing a non-political channel to promote regional engagement. Such soft diplomacy efforts are increasingly viewed as vital in building trust where traditional diplomacy faces significant hurdles.

Humanitarian Crisis and Accountability Concerns

The humanitarian situation in Gaza remains dire. Israeli strikes continue to hit homes, hospitals, clinics, and refugee camps, causing mass displacement and infrastructure destruction. UNRWA’s latest Situation Report #210 highlights a sharp increase in attacks on healthcare facilities, with damages tripling over the past five years and civilian casualties surpassing 6,000 over the 15 months of conflict.

Recent investigations point to disturbing violations, including execution-style killings of medics and other war crimes, raising urgent concerns about compliance with international humanitarian law. The report also warns of possible ethnic cleansing in Gaza, with evidence suggesting systematic efforts to displace and marginalize Palestinian populations, intensifying fears of a humanitarian catastrophe on an unprecedented scale.

Hospitals are overwhelmed, and restrictions—such as blocking access through Rafah and impeding medical evacuations—worsen the crisis. Aid groups are petitioning Israeli courts to continue operations amid legal hurdles, warning that legal restrictions and data-sharing requirements could jeopardize aid delivery and civilian safety. An aid official lamented, “We fear that new legal hurdles and data-sharing requirements could undermine our ability to deliver aid and save civilian lives.”

Calls for Justice and Accountability

The escalation in civilian casualties and violations of medical neutrality have intensified calls for accountability under international law. Human rights organizations condemn attacks on civilians and healthcare facilities, emphasizing the urgent need for investigations into possible war crimes. The international community recognizes that upholding principles of proportionality and distinction is essential not only for justice but also for laying the groundwork for future peace.

Regional Dynamics: Shifting Alliances and Cross-Border Tensions

Within Israel, debates over the viability of a two-state solution have intensified. The October 7 attacks exposed profound flaws in existing approaches, prompting calls to rethink Gaza strategy and regional peace efforts.

Proposals to expand Jerusalem into parts of the West Bank threaten Palestinian claims to East Jerusalem, risking renewed violence. Meanwhile, regional alliances are shifting:

• Saudi Arabia’s cautious stance suggests openness to normalization with Israel, but emphasizes that such moves should be conditional on progress toward a two-state solution and regional stability.
• The US–Iran rivalry continues to influence regional stability, with Iran supporting armed groups and complicating diplomatic efforts for peace.

Cross-Border Security Concerns and the Movement of Fighters

Recent reports reveal the release of Hamas fighters into Egypt, raising alarms over cross-border threats. Egyptian security forces are actively monitoring these developments, emphasizing that cooperation with Cairo is vital to regional stability. The movement of fighters risks destabilizing border regions, facilitating infiltration, and spreading armed influence, potentially igniting broader conflict.

Political Risks in Peacekeeping Leadership

The prospect of state-led peacekeeping, such as Indonesia’s potential involvement, introduces significant political risks. As noted by the South China Morning Post, Indonesia’s leadership could carry high costs amid regional sensitivities, questions of impartiality, and the challenge of operational readiness. Success depends on regional acceptance and clear mandates to ensure legitimacy and effectiveness.

Recent Policy and Discourse Developments

Legislative actions in the United States are gaining momentum, including proposals to restrict the use of U.S.-supplied weapons in Gaza. A bill aims to limit transfers and deployment of American arms, reflecting domestic political pressures to curb U.S. involvement and enhance accountability.

In parallel, public discourse continues to evolve. A recent long-form documentary titled “Tomorrow is Yesterday: Life, Death and the Pursuit of Peace in Israel/Palestine” by Robert Malle offers a human-centered view of the conflict, emphasizing personal stories, historical context, and the complex hopes and fears that underpin peace efforts.

The Latest Developments: New Evidence and Strategic Challenges

Severe Civilian Impact and Ethnic-Cleansing Concerns

The UNRWA Situation Report #210 underscores the severity of the humanitarian crisis, highlighting widespread destruction and displacement. Alarmingly, OHCHR (Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights) has raised concerns about possible ethnic cleansing by Israeli authorities in Gaza, citing patterns of displacement and systematic marginalization of Palestinian populations. Such allegations, if substantiated, could significantly influence international legal and diplomatic responses.

Military Leadership Signals and Escalation Risks

The Israeli army chief has remained 'silent' on the potential costs of a new broader war with Iran, but recent statements from Israeli military leadership suggest awareness of the devastating consequences such a conflict could entail. Experts warn that escalation with Iran could dramatically increase regional instability, threaten broader conflicts, and jeopardize the fragile ceasefire.

Current Status and Outlook

As of now, the ceasefire remains tenuous but holds, with international efforts focused on translating commitments into tangible actions. The core challenges include:

• Hamas's continued resistance to disarmament, which hampers progress toward reconciliation.
• The deteriorating humanitarian situation, exacerbated by ongoing violence, infrastructure damage, and restrictions.
• Shifting regional dynamics, which threaten to escalate tensions and undermine peace efforts.
• Trust deficits among stakeholders, compounded by allegations of ethnic cleansing and violations of international law.

Immediate priorities are clear:

• Achieving inclusive Palestinian reconciliation that bridges divisions between Hamas and the PA.
• Establishing credible, locally-accepted security arrangements that reassure all parties.
• Ensuring sustained humanitarian access to prevent further suffering.
• Implementing accountability mechanisms to address violations and build trust.

Failure to effectively address these issues risks reigniting conflict or regional escalation, while sustained, genuine efforts could lay the foundation for long-term peace and stability.

Implications and Final Reflection

The current peace window is narrow, and the stakes are high. The internal Palestinian divisions, regional geopolitical shifts, and international diplomatic efforts will determine whether this moment leads to meaningful change or slips back into chaos.

Recent developments—such as the U.S. legislative push to restrict weapon transfers and the renewed focus on soft diplomacy efforts—highlight the complexity and urgency of this juncture. Success depends on credible governance, accountability, and respect for human rights, with the international community playing a vital role in supporting sustainable peace.

The region and the world are watching closely. The path to lasting peace remains uncertain but critically important. The choices made now will shape Gaza’s future, Palestinian sovereignty, and regional stability for years to come. The opportunity is fragile; its preservation hinges on concerted, genuine effort and unwavering commitment from all stakeholders.