Global Microeconomics Monitor

China's March exports slowed to 2.5% YoY—a five-month low, undershooting forecasts— as Iran war's energy shock offset AI-driven gains.

• AI momentum...

Saudi Arabia to halve crude exports to China in May (20M barrels vs 40M in April), as Middle East war traps supplies near the Strait of Hormuz and...

BYD's export pivot shines amid China EV challenges:

• #1 worldwide with 4.2M deliveries in 2025, overtaking Tesla, but profits fell 3.4% to 40.3B yuan...

• Tariff salvo: Beijing matches US 125% duties on American goods effective April 12, hitting ag, energy, and industrials with cost pressures.
• Firm...

Geopolitical flashpoint escalates: Unverified US intel claims China prepping MANPADS for Iran, prompting Trump's 50% tariff threat on Chinese...

• South Korea secures oil alternatives: Nearing Kazakhstan crude deal to cut 70% Middle East reliance; extra 26.2T won budget aids naphtha stability...

Taiwan's bold move to secure energy imports: first-ever joint Interior Ministry drills to escort LNG/oil ships during a potential Chinese naval...

Automaker Firm Struggles and Gains

• 🔥 VW Deliveries Drop: Volkswagen reported a 4% year-on-year fall in global deliveries in Q1 2026, with 15%...

Mixed pressures on Chinese firms from Iran war:

• Export slowdown: Growth cools to 8.6% in March vs. prior 21.8%, hit by energy shock and buyer cost...

• Chinese EV exports doubled to 954,000 NEVs in Q1, driving stocks up: Nio +7.5%, BYD +5% amid higher overseas margins.
• VW global deliveries fell...

Tariffs since 2025 have cost the auto industry $35.4 billion, targeting vehicles, parts, steel, and aluminum.

• Supply chain disruptions amplify...

Strategic chokepoints in gallium, germanium (2025 curbs), Nd, Dy, Tb (2026) trigger US supply disruptions.

• China holds 69% production, 92%...

Escalating controls on Ga-Ge and rare earths highlight China's grip, spiking costs for global tech chains.

• Ga-Ge dominance (~99% gallium, 60%...

China's firms like BYD and Geely are intensifying North American competition via Mexico, circumventing US barriers through local expansion and supply...

Economic resilience from 1970s lessons has cut oil's global energy share to 30% and made the US a net exporter, softening pure oil shocks.

But supply...

China's Battery Sector Regulation

• 🔥 MIIT Summons 16 Firms: China's summoned 16 EV and stationary battery makers for a second time to curb...

Strategic stockpiles and diversification are buffering China's supply chains amid Mideast disruptions, vindicating its all-of-the-above approach.

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China's export restrictions on rare earths and lithium batteries are driving US mining stocks higher, exposing global supply vulnerabilities.

• Stock...

US tariff revenue dropped over $4 billion in March, down almost 30% since October. With $22.15 billion collected recently, this signals potential shifts in import flows amid ongoing trade policies.

Key wins for China from Middle East chaos:

• Low Iran reliance: Just 10% of oil imports from Iran, despite buying 80% of its exports; 1.2-1.3B...