US Economy Pulse

Market Resilience

• 🔥 Stocks Advance Despite Headwinds: Stocks finished higher despite cooling dispersion trade, widening credit spreads, and...

March PPI highlights:

• Monthly +0.5% for final demand, matching revised February but vs 1.2% forecast
• Annual +4.0%, up from 3.4% prior but below 4.6% expected
• Signals softer inflation pressures at wholesale level, easing concerns

US stocks showed resilience today, advancing despite higher oil prices, widening credit spreads, and a cooling dispersion trade.

Key drivers:
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Energy stocks like COP shine amid volatility:

• Top Q1 contributor for Oakmark Fund, outperforming S&P 500
• Stock rose on favorable macroeconomic...

S&P 500 Rally on Iran De-escalation Hopes

• 🔥 Record High Achieved: The S&P 500 rose 0.8% and eclipsed its prior all-time high set in January,...

Middle East thaw drives S&P surge: Hopes for US-Iran ceasefire extension lift index near records at ~6,900-7,023, reversing oil-spike damage over...

PIMCO sees groundwork for the Fed to restart gradual quantitative tightening (QT) as early as next year, with minimal market disruption like the...

Fed Signals Prolonged Rate Hold

• 🔥 Cleveland Fed's Hammack View: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated the baseline is to keep interest...

Key Fed rationale for holding rates amid dual threats:

• Cautious stance persists despite market hopes for cuts, signaling patience.
• Hold 'for a...

Retirees face outsized inflation from soaring oil: CPI-E outpaced standard CPI for 40 months since 2022, rising 1.2pp more (10.8% vs. 9.6%).

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Inflation Data

• 🔥 March CPI: Consumer prices rose 3.3% YoY and 0.9% MoM in March 2026, driven by energy prices including gasoline up 21.2%...

• Sentiment plunges: US small business optimism falls to 11-month low in March
• Energy costs spike: Truckers' diesel spend hits record high on Middle...

March inflation mixed bag: Headline CPI jumps to 3.3% YoY (up 0.9% MoM) on energy surge—gasoline +21.2% MoM—while core edges to 2.6% YoY.
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TV talking heads push positives, but broad indicators reveal strains:

• Earnings & stocks resilient—yet strip MAG7 earnings weaken, market poor future...

Key uncertainties loom over April's Fed meeting as Powell's chair term ends in May:

• Trump nominee Kevin Warsh's hearing is next week; Senate delay...

No quick relief for borrowers as oil-driven inflation prompts caution:

• Treasury's Bessent urges Fed to wait on cuts with oil above $100/barrel from...

• Core driver: Financial conditions—not direct oil swings—dictate stock moves; no tightening means resilience.
• Oil whiplash ignored: 6-7% surge, yet...

Tariffs drive inflation: Trump's 2025 tariffs raised core goods prices by 3.1% via full pass-through to consumers, accounting for all excess since...

CPI Jumps on Gasoline Surge

• 🔥 Headline Inflation at 3.3%: Consumer prices rose 0.9% in March, pushing annual rate to 3.3% from 2.4%, with...

March CPI spiked 0.9% – largest since 2022 – to 3.3% annual, with gasoline up 21.2% fueling nearly 3/4 of gain.

• Geopolitics reignites: Failed...