US Economy Pulse

Geopolitical tensions are driving oil shocks as top macro threat to US economy:

• Prices exploding: Oil past $100/barrel with WTI up 65% to $95 from...

US homebuilder sentiment edged up in March, but higher construction costs and labor shortages lingered as key concerns – signaling a tentative housing rebound tied to industrial challenges.

Key trend signals in US bond markets:

• Foreign holdings surge to $9.305T in Jan (+8% YoY), led by Japan ($1.225T), UK ($895B), China; $49.9B inflows...

February's surprise PPI surge – up 0.7% monthly and 3.4% yearly, highest in a year – hit before energy shocks from the Iran war.

• Food-driven: Sharp...

• Robust outlook: U.S. retail sales to rise 4.4% to $5.6 trillion, outpacing the 3.6% 10-year average (excl. COVID).
• Consumer resilience drives...

Mixed signals emerge in US industrials: National industrial production rose 0.2% in February, beating expectations, but NY Empire State Manufacturing...

February PPI breakdown:

• Headline +0.7% m/m for final demand, up from +0.5% prior and more than double economists' expectations
• Vs. +0.3% consensus estimate
• Core PPI +0.5% m/m vs. +0.3% est.

• Hold anticipated: Fed likely keeps rates at 3.5%-3.75% after January pause, prior to three 0.25% cuts.
• War context: First meeting since US-Iran...

• Macro resurgence: Big-picture forces are reclaiming dominance in economic analysis.
• AI short-term boost: Agentic AI enhances immediate decision...

Regional manufacturing contracts as NY Empire State Index slips to -0.2 in March, from prior +7.1 and below estimates of 3.2-3.9. Signals potential...

Geopolitical flare-up hits economy hard:

• Hormuz disruption slashes vessel traffic to ~90 since conflict, rerouting 20% of global oil flows and...

Workplace technology in manufacturing continues advancing with AI tools, IoT devices, and smart systems as key trends to watch for 2026.

Heading into 2026, U.S. consumers feel real pressure from rising grocery costs, increasing debt, and economic uncertainty, eroding spending power, says Credit One Bank.

• 10-year note: Closed at 4.28%
• 2-year note: Ended at 3.73%
• 30-year: Finished at 4.90%

• Stock resilience amid disruptions to oil prices, economic growth, and inflation; ended week lower but losses somewhat contained.
• Treasuries...

Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid Iran war disruptions, but oil spikes complicate the path.

• Gas prices up 27% since war, risking inflation...

Key inflation pressures mount ahead of Fed meeting:

• PPI surges: Producer prices hit 3.4% YoY last month, up 0.7% MoM from January — a hot...

GDP up, stocks at all-time highs, inflation down paint a strong US economy picture. Yet many everyday Americans still struggle, revealing a disconnect in labor realities.

Key pressures on US markets today:

• Indexes slide: Dow drops nearly 400 points (-0.8%), S&P 500 and Nasdaq -0.6% each.
• Hot wholesale inflation: Feb...

• Diesel nears $5/gal nationwide after Trump Iran strikes disrupt Strait of Hormuz (1/5 global oil)
• Fuels trucks, freight, farming—driving inflation...