U.S. sanctions volatility: waivers and policy discretion
Key Questions
What extensions have been granted for Russian oil sanctions waivers?
GL 134C extends Russian oil waivers to June 17, 2026. The UK has also delayed bans on jet fuel and diesel from Russian crude amid price spikes and supply concerns.
How has the UK adjusted its sanctions on Russian oil?
The UK has quietly allowed £1.8B in Russian crude via India/Turkey loopholes and eased new sanctions due to fuel price spikes and Iran supply fears. Existing sanctions are stated to remain in place.
What effect have US strikes in Iran had on oil markets?
US strikes have set back Hormuz re-opening, causing Brent to jump 4%. This supports Urals flows but highlights fluid political and liquidity risks.
What is the status of LUKOIL's asset sales under sanctions?
LUKOIL's forced global asset sale deadline has been extended for the sixth time with no buyer approved. This underscores the persistent sanctions overhang.
Why is sanctions policy described as volatile?
Frequent waiver extensions, UK easing measures, and responses to price spikes and Iran-related fears create ongoing uncertainty. The situation signals fluid political and market risks for Russian oil flows.
New reporting says Trump waived planned Russia sanctions and energy tariffs on October 16 and proposed diesel shipments. The first tanker’s limited cargo leaves the market impact unclear; verify the scope and implementation of any waiver through official notices, as this is not a company-specific trade signal.