Refinery strikes cut Russian throughput and raise domestic fuel and export risks
Key Questions
Which Russian refineries have been targeted by Ukrainian drone strikes?
Strikes have hit the Syzran refinery (Rosneft, halted May 21), Moscow facilities (11.6Mt), LUKOIL Nizhny (17mtpa), and sites at Kirishi, Yaroslavl, Perm, Ryazan, plus the Novorossiysk Black Sea port. Additional recent attacks targeted Rosneft's Saratov refinery and a Taganrog depot.
How much of Russia's refining capacity is currently offline?
Six major refineries have been knocked out, resulting in approximately 25% of national capacity being offline. This has contributed to runs at 2009 lows with cuts of 300-400kbd.
What response is Russia considering to the refinery attacks?
Russia is bracing for a diesel/kerosene export ban to address the situation. This measure would further pressure revenues for Rosneft and LUKOIL.
What is the impact on Russian oil exports?
Baltic exports have fallen 31%, with overall runs at 2009 lows and production cuts of 300-400kbd. Ongoing physical risks to LUKOIL and Rosneft assets persist.
What are the latest developments in the drone campaign?
Ukraine has renewed attacks on Rosneft's Saratov refinery and a Taganrog depot. The situation remains developing with continued escalation on energy infrastructure.
An IEA estimate cited in coverage puts refinery throughput at a more-than-20-year low, roughly 30% below a year earlier. Reporting reiterates fuel restrictions, including at Rosneft stations, but Kirishi and Rosneft’s Saratov refinery were reportedly already halted when struck, leaving incremental damage, outage duration and company impact unclear.