Middle East tanker/Strait of Hormuz shock remains the proximate oil driver
Key Questions
What is the primary cause of current oil price volatility?
The Iran war, now over 20 days with a Trump ultimatum paused and Putin support, drives volatility via a Strait of Hormuz blockade since February 2026 trapping Qatar LNG. Brent oil prices fluctuate between $65-119 per barrel, while Urals range from $100-200.
How does the Strait of Hormuz blockade impact Europe's energy supply?
The blockade traps Qatar LNG, which supplies 12-14% of EU gas, deepening Europe's energy trap without Russian gas and pushing for a sanctions thaw. Asia ramps up ESPO and naphtha imports to offset global gaps.
Where is Russia directing its oil exports amid Middle East disruptions?
Russia exports $554 million per day in oil to India, China, the Philippines, South Korea, and Sri Lanka. This redirection helps offset supply disruptions as Asian markets increase ESPO and naphtha imports.
Iran war day 20+ (Trump threats reject truce, Putin support, Hormuz blockade traps Qatar LNG 12-14% EU supply); Goldman warns $110+ shortages Asia-EU; OPEC+ incl Russia +206k bpd; oil volatile Brent $65-119/Urals $100-200; Asia ESPO/naphtha ramps offset gaps; Russia $554M/day to India/China PS2/Phil/SKorea/Sri Lanka.