US refining capacity decline
Key Questions
Which US refineries closed between 2025 and 2026?
Closures include LyondellBasell Houston (263k bpd), Phillips 66 Rodeo (120k bpd), and Valero Benicia (145k bpd), for a net contraction of about 528k bpd.
What are the implications of declining US refining capacity?
The structural rationalization raises import dependency and affects maintenance CAPEX for valves and automation equipment.
Are refining margins expected to remain strong?
Refining margins are expected to remain supported through H2 as product supply lags crude flows, though crack spreads remain unpredictable due to Chinese export quotas.
US refinery capacity dropped from 2025 to 2026 with closures of LyondellBasell Houston (263k bpd), Phillips 66 Rodeo (120k bpd), and Valero Benicia (145k bpd)—net contraction of ~528k bpd. Structural rationalization raises import dependency and affects maintenance CAPEX for valves/automation. Contrarian view: crack spreads remain unpredictable due to Chinese export quotas and operating leverage, tempering bullish outlook.