FX Market Pulse

Goldman Sachs now sees just one more Fed hike in December, or possibly none if inflation keeps cooling.

• Weak September jobs (29k added) and softer...

A clear beginner-to-intermediate guide to FX mechanics and what moves prices.

• Currency pairs trade one currency against another, such as EUR/USD...

September's uneven moves set clear short-term setups for October majors:

• USDJPY faces capped upside near 158.00 as BoJ hikes and intervention...

As Eurozone inflation nears 4%, will surging bond yields force ECB rate hikes or cool demand first?

• Inflation jump: September CPI hit 3.8% from...

PCE inflation dipped to 3.4% YoY in August with core at 3.0%, below forecasts, yet multiple FOMC voices still flag possible further hikes.

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Softer Australian inflation has triggered an AUD/USD selloff by unwinding RBA rate hike expectations, though trimmed mean inflation remains elevated at 4.12% annualized over three months and 3.94% over six months.

Softer core PCE at 3.0% y/y triggered an immediate pullback in 10-year yields and the dollar index, giving EUR/USD a brief reprieve after its slide to...

• US terminal rate expectations at 4.5% have shifted market pricing toward a possible 3.75% peak for the Bank of Korea
• Only JPMorgan forecasts...

• Rising oil and yields lift the greenback broadly at the new month start.
• EUR and CAD hit fresh yearly lows as eurozone rate spreads widen on...

Markets keep shrugging off major risks, but three tests could finally force a reaction.

• Geopolitical shock: Iran war created the largest global...

NZD/USD sits just above the critical 0.5639 support after tumbling on hawkish Fed signals. A weak payrolls report could spark the relief bounce seen in past oversold conditions, while strong US data would likely extend the downtrend.

New York Fed President Williams indicated one more rate hike may be needed in late 2026, a signal that could reinforce higher-for-longer expectations and lend support to the dollar ahead of major US data.

• Warsh delivered 29% fewer words in September, abandoning forward guidance for concise messaging.
• Yet he warned summer inflation trends show no...

• Technical view pins USD/JPY year-end range at 155-160 amid Fed pricing clashes.
• Wells Fargo raises targets to 160-164 and lifts dollar index to...

EUR/JPY sets up a two-way trade around the Tuesday candle break and 177.50 level, fueled by yen carry-trade interest.

• Buy the Tuesday candle break...

RBA is expected to hike 25 bps to 4.60% on persistent inflation, while Fed hawkishness points to further tightening and wider yield differentials.
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USD holds firm near a two-month peak as markets reprice aggressive Fed hikes.

• Hawkish shift: October rate hike odds jump to over 70%, with nearly...

Fed's Barkin comments on unemployment driving consumption and AI facing rate pressure arrive as isolated quotes, stripped of the original question or...

Goldman Sachs and Crédit Agricole have sharply lowered their USD/JPY forecasts, citing improving Japanese policy and potential GPIF repatriation flows...

EUR/USD and USD/JPY traders confront an identity crisis, effectively trading crude oil futures as energy gyrations tightly dictate FX moves alongside US yields. With no major data releases today, crude's influence persists through Friday's payrolls.