FX Market Pulse

• 市场广泛预期ECB本周四加息25bp至2.50%
• 焦点已转向是否12月再推第三次加息，投资者已部分定价
• JPMorgan等机构调整预测支持年内再加息，官员观点仍存分歧

Dovish Fed comments from Waller first eased USD pressure, cutting September hike odds to 50% and lifting EUR/USD toward 1.1627.

Strong August jobs...

Conflicting Fed voices and data have flipped September odds from a likely hold to near 50/50.

• Hawkish push: Warsh warned underlying inflation...

路透调查显示，多数经济学家预计英国央行今年剩余时间将维持利率在3.75%不变。英镑相对美元的走势将取决于利率预期与美指强弱对比，交易者需密切关注。

Potential Fed rate hikes to fight inflation may reshape personal finances, highlighting macro policy moves that USD traders should watch for impacts on major pairs.

Bond auctions and public holidays belong in every Forex Factory-style trading checklist because they directly shift liquidity and USD flows.

• USD...

EUR/JPY has entered a brief consolidation after its sharp two-day drop, pausing momentum around current levels.

Key levels to monitor for short-term...

Strong August jobs data has shifted USD trading logic from expecting Fed cuts to pricing in possible hikes.

• 162K beat: Nonfarm Payrolls hit 162K...

High-impact US inflation prints and ECB/BOJ decisions converge this week, setting up direct volatility for EUR/USD, USD/JPY and other majors.

• US...

GBP/USD reacts sharply to BoE/Fed rate decisions, UK/US inflation, employment data, GDP, and retail sales.

• London-NY overlap delivers highest...

Pivot points help define bullish or bearish bias for EUR/USD intraday trades.

• Daily pivot at 1.16108: above signals bullish, below bearish
• Key...

JOLTS data showed downward moves in both quits rate (1.9% vs 2.0% prior) and hires rate (3.2% vs 3.4% prior).

USD/JPY stays near one-month lows near 155.75 amid three clear bearish factors.

• Fed outlook: Reduced September hike bets and lower US yields...

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