US 15-point ceasefire plan and mixed Iran talks via Pakistan/China
Key Questions
What is the US 15-point ceasefire proposal?
The US proposed a 45-day/15-point ceasefire plan, which Iran rejected. Iran countered with a 10-point permanent end including sanctions relief, Hormuz fees, Gaza issues, and no proxies.
What threats has Trump made regarding the deadline?
Trump issued 'civilization die' threats ahead of the April 7 deadline. Mediation via Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey, and China has failed, with Netanyahu prolonging the conflict.
What are the odds of a ceasefire before the deadline?
Odds are under 5% pre-April 7 deadline per prediction markets. Markets pushed back odds of the conflict ending soon to 12% on Kalshi.
Has a ceasefire been agreed upon?
Reports mention a 2-week ceasefire agreement between US, Iran, and Israel, but Israel abides reluctantly and excludes Lebanon. Some updates note attacks resuming, throwing it into question.
What role is Pakistan playing?
Negotiations involve Pakistan, with Trump suspending bombing for two weeks amid talks. Deadlines have been extended again.
How does Iran view the US plan?
Iran rejects the US deal and presented its 10-point plan amid rising tensions. Tehran sets conditions to end the war.
What is Israel's stance on the ceasefire?
Israel is unhappy with the two-week US-Iran ceasefire, abiding reluctantly but stressing it does not include Lebanon. Netanyahu prolongs the conflict.
Are there broader international reactions?
The globe races to defuse the conflict with no winners; Houthi threats spike ceasefire odds via Bab el-Mandeb. Trump declares victory amid ongoing strikes.
Iran rejects 45-day/15-pt ceasefire, presents 10-pt permanent end (sanctions/Hormuz fee/Gaza/no proxies); Trump 'civilization die' threats; mediation via Pak/Egy/Tur/China fails; Netanyahu prolongs; odds <5% pre-Apr7 deadline.