U.S. Equity Outlook

Tech & AI Trends

• 🔥 Semiconductor Rally Broadens: Semiconductor stocks up 55% YTD, outpacing the Magnificent 7, driven by AI infrastructure...

No significant updates today.

No significant updates today.

Tech Earnings & Capital Returns

• 🔥 Nvidia Shareholder Returns: Nvidia announced a dividend hike and $80B buyback on 59.5% FCF margins after...

• Rising yields pressure stock valuations, with the 10-year Treasury at its highest since January 2025.
• Core PCE print Thursday will shape the Fed’s...

Mega-cap tech capex is intensifying while S&P 500 earnings growth outside AI infrastructure sits at 0%.

• Apple and Microsoft face diverging dividend...

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's politically weak confirmation is offset by hawkish data, letting him hold rates steady without seeming to bow to White...

Nasdaq posted $1.41 billion in Q1 revenue, up 13.7% year-over-year and beating estimates by 2.2%, with double-digit growth across all three divisions...

Walmart and Home Depot describe consumers who are still spending but making sharper trade-offs, shifting to private labels, and deferring large...

Market Technicals

• 🔥 S&P 500: Sell The News: The S&P 500 rally shows a maturing trend with a weekly exhaustion signal, lower low and lower high,...

Cerebras' 68% first-day pop and $5.5B raise show fresh demand for AI chip listings, yet strategists question whether investors will add exposure or...

AvalonBay and Equity Residential's all-stock merger of equals forms a $69 billion enterprise value REIT with 180,000+ apartments, $125 million net...

The S&P 500 rally has hit a weekly exhaustion signal and formed lower highs/lows for the first time, pointing to limited upside. A potential US-Iran...

Legacy chipmakers are capitalizing on the shift to inference and edge AI, broadening the trade past Nvidia's dominance.

• Qualcomm's "cold" chips...

Fed Policy & Macro Trends

• 🔥 Kevin Warsh Fed Chair: Kevin Warsh assumes Fed Chair role with focus on price stability amid elevated inflation and...

SOLV Energy's recent IPO positions it as a pure-play beneficiary of surging AI data center power needs, with backlog jumping 82% year-over-year to...

Walmart's 7% stock plunge after beating Q1 estimates highlights consumer weakness as a leading retail indicator.

• CFO cited “indication of stress”...

Nvidia's strong earnings beat was already priced in via pre-rally, with the stock up 10% into results and now digesting at 18x forward earnings.

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• New Chair in Place: Kevin Warsh sworn in emphasizing price stability and institutional independence as inflation sits above the 2% target
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New Fed Chair Warsh's inflation-first stance collides with historical sector patterns under 3.4% CPI.

• Tech resilience: AI-driven names like NVIDIA...