Fed Hawkish Repricing: 30-Year Yield at 19-Year High, September Hike Priced

The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.27%, a 19-year high, and the market now prices a September rate hike (68% odds) rather than a cut. The July FOMC had three dissents, reinforcing tightening bias. Fed's Paulson kept an 'open mind' on rate policy, adding to the higher-for-longer narrative. Friday's payrolls are the next catalyst. This macro regime shift changes valuation frameworks for risk assets, particularly tech. August seasonal test shows S&P range-bound, small-cap consolidation, and mixed cross-asset signals; breadth hitting new highs and negative sentiment are contrarian bullish.