******Fed holds rates amid Iran oil shock/yields spike; Powell wait-and-see on inflation; Warsh impasse; mortgages 6.5%, gas $4.12-4.14+/possible $5; ISM stagflation signals; Mar jobs 178k/U3 4.3%; ADP +26k/wk******
Key Questions
What were the key figures in the March jobs report?
Nonfarm employers added 178,000 jobs in March, reducing the unemployment rate to 4.3%. This rebound was described as strong across the board by Bank of America analysts, though job growth is approaching a breakeven point near zero.
How high have national gas prices risen?
National average gas prices reached $4.12-4.14 per gallon according to AAA, up 37% year-over-year, surpassing $4 for the first time since 2022. Some states like Florida ($4.20), Tennessee, New Jersey, Texas, Pennsylvania saw jumps of 21 cents or more, with potential to hit $5 amid oil shocks.
What is the current Federal Reserve interest rate stance?
Fed Chair Powell is holding rates steady at 3.5-3.75% in a wait-and-see approach on inflation. This comes amid an Iran oil shock pushing oil to $111-116 per barrel and spiking yields.
What do recent mortgage rates look like?
Mortgage rates are at 6.3-6.5%, with an outlook described as not good for April due to rising yields and Iran conflict impacts. Higher gas prices indirectly contribute to upward pressure on rates.
What did the ISM Services PMI report show for March?
The ISM Services PMI was at 54%, indicating expansion, but prices subindex hit 70.7% while employment fell to 45.2%, signaling stagflation pressures. This disappointed expectations with jumping prices and dumping employment.
What is ADP reporting on private-sector jobs?
ADP reported a weekly average increase of 26,000 private-sector jobs in the four weeks ended March 21. This reflects a cooling but still positive labor market trend.
What stagflation signals are emerging?
ISM data shows rising prices amid contracting employment, combined with oil shocks and slowing job growth near breakeven. Articles warn of 'Stagflation 2026' as hiring hits lows while costs surge.
What's the status of Kevin Warsh's Fed chair nomination?
Kevin Warsh's confirmation as the new Fed chair is at an impasse amid mounting Iran war troubles. This adds uncertainty to Fed policy transitions.
Natl gas $4.12-4.14 AAA (+37% YoY), states jumps FL $4.20/TN/NJ/TX/PA +21¢/UT/HI over $1; oil $111-116/bbl; ISM Services 54% prices 70.7%/empl 45.2%; ADP +26k/wk to Mar21; Powell holds 3.5-3.75%, mortgages 6.3-6.5%; Mar jobs 178k/breakeven ~0.