S&P 500 Strategy Digest

Hot PPI Data Pressures S&P 500

• 🔥 February PPI Surprise: February PPI rose +0.7% m/m versus +0.3% estimated and +0.5% prior, with core +0.5% m/m...

Narrow leadership exposed: Just 7 stocks drive most S&P 500 gains, masking broader weakness.

Rotation underway: Cap-weighted S&P down 3% YTD, while...

Hot PPI fuels rate cut delay fears rocking S&P 500:

• PPI surged +0.7% m/m (vs. +0.3% est.), core +0.5% (vs. +0.3%)
• Consumer Staples plunged 1.68%...

Short-term resilience shines, yet internal risks linger for long-term holders:

• Index edges higher on Tuesday's airline surge (Delta, American),...

Quality stocks backed by strong balance sheets and cash flows have a place in almost any portfolio – spotlight on the overlooked Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF (SPHQ).

Rising dissent tracked by WSJ: More governors and regional Fed presidents dissenting at policy meetings.

Divisions building – from near-unanimous...

Short-term relief: S&P 500 stages surprising rebound from Iran conflict chaos, driven by AI/semiconductor strength in Nasdaq.

Longer-term...

• Mag7 rebound insufficient to reverse brutal February, as Big Tech drags S&P 500 on valuation jitters.
• Popular S&P ETF holds 34% in Magnificent...

Inflation Data and Fed Expectations

• 🔥 Core PCE at 3.1% Y/Y: Core PCE inflation rose 3.1% year-over-year in January, hotter than expected.
• Fed...

Fed poised to hold interest rates steady amid escalating Middle East tensions disrupting oil markets and supply chains. War-driven inflation risks...

• Potential top spotted by Jefferies and Citi in soaring energy stocks
• Investors hiding out amid Iran war urged not to get too comfortable
• Key risk for S&P energy overweight as tail hedge in portfolios

Timeline of S&P 500 strength through Tuesday's oil volatility:

• Oil surges from Middle East tensions: US stocks inch higher, eyes on Fed
• Gains...

Key S&P 500 internals pivot to macro forces:

• Volatility from stock-specific to geopolitics, oil, inflation
• Tech dispersion eases post-Feb (chips >...

Top $200 billion index fund strategist warns of muted S&P 500 returns at 3% annually for the next decade—just one-fifth of the past decade's...

Defiance Large Cap ex-Mag 7 ETF (XMAG) seeks to track the BITA US 500 ex-Magnificent 7 Index before fees—ideal for long-term S&P 500 strategies dodging tech giant dominance risks.

Mixed macro hits S&P 500 bull case:

• Growth decelerates: US economy growing slower than expected, Q4 2025 GDP revised down
• Inflation persists: Core...

• Fed two-day meeting begins amid diesel price surge, flagging energy cost pressures for policy signals.
• Kraft Heinz pivots to healthier products,...

• Historical resilience: S&P 500 tracked around major geopolitical events via AAII Bull/Bear and Greed/Fear indicators.
• Recent surge: Strongest...

Sticky inflation persists: US producer prices increased strongly in January, with core PCE inflation estimated at up to 3.1% YoY (MoM 0.37%-0.49%)....

• US Q4 GDP hit just 0.7% annualized, well below 1.4% expectations
• Led by slowdown in personal growth rate
• Brent oil continues trading above $100/bbl, amplifying economic drag on S&P financial conditions