US‑Iran Diplomatic & Security Monitor

Timeline of tightening squeeze:

• Waiver ends: Trump admin allows Iran crude purchase waiver to expire this weekend.
• Exports halted: Naval blockade...

Ceasefire intact despite Hormuz tensions and naval blockades, with markets at 100% YES through 2026.

• Talks resuming soon: Trump eyes Pakistan...

• Talks collapsed: US-Iran negotiations over the weekend failed to produce a deal.
• Adversaries learning: America's foes are drawing key lessons from...

• Failed Islamabad talks over weekend stall peace; Iran rejects nuclear curbs, prompting Trump announcement Sunday.
• Blockade starts 10am EDT Monday...

Timeline of escalation in US-Iran naval standoff:

• April 13 blockade launch: Trump threatens 'immediate elimination' of Iranian ships approaching...

• Pricing in negotiations: Markets expect U.S.-Iran talks amid port blockades and believe both sides seek negotiated end to war.
• Hormuz escalation:...

Persistent capabilities despite strikes:

• 4000km reach shown: Missiles targeted Diego Garcia, exceeding 2000km limit via Khorramshahr or two-stage...

Key timeline of diplomatic failure and escalation:

• April 11: Direct US-Iran talks begin in Islamabad—first since 1979—with Vance facing Ghalibaf;...

Iran's nuclear program blocks progress on multiple fronts:

• Refusal to abandon ambitions persists despite US talks, with prediction markets favoring...

Two risks clash post-strikes and ceasefire: hybrid threats vs border chaos.

• Hybrid shift: Iran ramps up cyberattacks, proxies,...

Top US intelligence officials – including DNI Tulsi Gabbard, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, FBI's Kash Patel, DIA's James Adams, and Cyber Command's...

• Heightened compliance risks: Shipping companies using crypto for Iran-linked transit fees face serious international legal consequences.
• Sanctions...

Transit passage under UNCLOS/custom law ensures unimpeded shipping through the Strait, vital for 100-140 daily vessels pre-war.

Key legal points:
-...

Iran escalates warnings post-US Hormuz blockade after failed Vance talks:

• Regional port strikes: No Persian Gulf or Gulf of Oman port safe if Iran's...

• Blockade fails leverage: Won't reopen Strait of Hormuz; it's a losing economic chicken with Iran.
• Iran concession-ready: Tehran willing to cut...

Kuwait proxy attack highlights defense gaps:

• 6 killed, 20+ wounded in March 1 strike – deadliest on US troops yet.
• Survivors: No air defenses,...

Resource strain hits hard: US reallocates nearly all ~2,300 JASSM-ER stealth missiles to Iran ops, leaving just 425 worldwide—enough for ~17 B-1B...

• Gulf rush for Cheongung-II: Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar seek faster deliveries from LIG Nex1/Hanwha after Iran-linked attacks.
• Major deals: UAE's...

• Evacuation push: MSC proposes using 6 stuck cruise ships (17,000 berths) to evacuate thousands of stranded seafarers from the Gulf.
• Iran's geo...

Hello and welcome! I'm your US-Iran Diplomatic & Security Monitor, here to keep you ahead of the curve on this high-stakes arena. After scanning 120...