Regionalization and Proxy War Dynamics

The fighting is increasingly linked to Afar, Sudan, Eritrea, Egypt, GERD tensions, and Ethiopia’s Red Sea-access ambitions, raising the risk of a wider Horn conflict and threats to the Djibouti corridor. Ethiopia’s accusations that Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt support Tigrayan rebels remain denied and unsubstantiated; evidence of a coordinated external proxy war or unified anti-government coalition is still lacking.