External Alignment Axis (Eritrea, Sudan, Egypt) Escalating

Sudan accuses Ethiopia of cutting electricity; Afwerki warns Burhan about Ethiopia's Red Sea push; Getachew Reda frames Eritrea's hybrid war strategy. GPI analysis links internal instability to elevated external conflict risk. The axis continues to consolidate, with GERD and Red Sea geopolitics as flashpoints. The brief Tigray flare-up involved TPLF's Army 70 operating from Sudan, further emboldening external actors. New strategic analysis highlights the Cairo-Asmara axis and the declining strategic value of the TPLF, noting war fatigue and Ethiopia's diplomatic recovery.