Extreme Valuations; Citi Bear Market Checklist at GFC Highs; SpaceX $75B IPO Adds to Liquidity Risk
Key Questions
What does Citi's Bear Market Checklist show about current valuations?
Citi's Bear Market Checklist reached its highest levels since the GFC at 10/18 globally and 11.5/18 for the US, signaling elevated risks.
How extreme are current market valuation metrics?
The Buffett indicator stands at 231% and the Shiller CAPE at 40.8, with VOO ETF surpassing $1T while the Mag 7 lost $2T in June before bouncing.
What liquidity risks are highlighted by recent IPO activity?
SpaceX launched a record $75B IPO with shares jumping, adding to the $200B IPO wave flagged by BlackRock amid tightening global liquidity.
What consumer strain indicators are present despite the market rally?
Consumer strain persists with a savings rate of 2.6% and two-thirds of consumers cutting spending, even as Goldman raised its S&P target to 8,000.
What does the data-driven analysis say about bubble risks?
A new data-driven analysis highlights bubble risks and notes strong June seasonality with 89% positive historical returns, but warns of extreme valuations.
Citi's Bear Market Checklist at highest since GFC (10/18 globally, 11.5/18 US). Buffett indicator at 231%, Shiller CAPE at 40.8. VOO ETF passes $1T. Mag 7 lost $2T in June but now bouncing. SpaceX launched a record $75B IPO, shares jumped, adding to the $200B IPO wave flagged by BlackRock. Goldman raised S&P target to 8,000. Consumer strain persists: savings rate 2.6%, two-thirds cutting spending. Gold drops to $4,300. Global liquidity tightening adds fragility. A new data-driven analysis highlights bubble risks and seasonality (89% positive June returns) but warns of extreme valuations.