Iran-Israel Ceasefire Leads to Peace Deal; Oil Plunges; Markets Rally
Key Questions
What led to the sharp drop in oil prices?
Trump canceled strikes on Iran and announced a peace deal, sending oil prices sharply lower from near $100, with further declines on ceasefire hopes by June 15-16.
How did the Iran-Israel ceasefire affect global markets?
The ceasefire holds with supply fears easing, causing the geopolitical risk premium to collapse and driving a global risk-on rally across equities, while JP Morgan forecasted $60 oil.
What limited OPEC+ actions amid the oil price plunge?
OPEC+ announced a symbolic 188k bpd boost that had limited impact as oil continued sliding on deal hopes and later on Fed hawkishness.
Trump canceled strikes on Iran and announced a peace deal, sending oil prices sharply lower from near $100. By June 15-16, oil continued to drop on deal hopes; JP Morgan forecast $60 oil. The ceasefire holds and supply fears ease. OPEC+ symbolic 188k bpd boost limited. NY Fed supply chain pressure remains elevated. The geopolitical risk premium is collapsing, driving a global risk-on rally across equities. Oil crash and Fed chaos remain key themes as markets consolidate. On June 18, oil slid further as Warsh's hawkish tone weighed on commodities.