Iran-US Market Pulse

Sanctions Relief

• 🔥 OFAC General License X: US OFAC issued General License X on June 21 authorizing transactions in Iranian-origin crude oil,...

Oil supply recovery from Strait of Hormuz reopening and OPEC+ hikes has driven prices to their worst quarter since 2020.

• WTI fell near $68 as...

US-Iran talks in Doha and the June 21 GL X sanctions waiver initially eased supply fears, driving Brent down to $70.84.

Persistent uncertainty over a...

Sanctions Relief and Oil Exports

• 🔥 New General License Issued: A new General License authorizes Iranian-origin oil exports for the first time...

US-Iran technical talks continue alongside the OPEC+ ministerial meeting during June 29–July 5, events that could influence sanctions developments and...

OFAC General License X grants a 60-day window through August 21, 2026, allowing US importation of Iranian-origin crude and petroleum products plus USD...

Skepticism is rising over the new US-Iran deal's economic terms and stability risks compared to the Obama-era JCPOA.

• Financial upside for Iran:...

Iraq is weighing an OPEC exit if denied a higher production quota to recover from war-related losses. This move risks weakening cartel cohesion more than the UAE's recent departure and could weigh on near-term global oil prices.

Oil prices reversed sharply higher Thursday after an unknown projectile struck a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, with August WTI crude closing...

Sanctions Waiver Details

• 🔥 60-Day Oil Sanctions Waiver: US issued a 60-day Iranian oil sanctions waiver via OFAC General License X authorizing...

Factional opposition to the new US deal is visible in Tehran, including protests and hardliner dissent, yet analysts assess these groups currently...

Two critical analyses reveal stark leverage imbalances that threaten deal durability.

• Article 1 details US negotiating without leverage, forcing...

OFAC's General License X authorizes broad Iran energy transactions—including production, shipping, USD payments, and US imports—through August 21,...

Sanctions Relief Actions

• 🔥 US Sanctions Waiver: The United States waived sanctions on Iran for 60 days starting Monday following initial talks...

US-Iran MOU Takes Effect

• 🔥 14-Point Deal Signed: US commits to lift all unilateral, primary and secondary sanctions in exchange for Strait of...

• Core terms: 60-day MOU waives US sanctions on Iranian oil exports and commits to lifting all unilateral, primary, and secondary sanctions in...

• Brent crude plunged 17.7% to $78.16 from $97.85 peak in just 15 days after June 15 US-Iran MOU.
• Reopening Strait of Hormuz expected to release...

Deal Timeline Advances

• 🔥 Formal Signing Set for Friday: Leaked files confirm the US-Iran accord will be formally signed in Switzerland on...

US-Iran accord advances with Friday signing planned, yet nuclear talks and implementation risks persist.

• Hormuz flows recover to 12 MMbpd, spurring...

A preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement has lowered immediate escalation risks, but unresolved tensions over sanctions, Iran's nuclear program, and the...