Global capacity expansion & capex ramp — Tongluo P5 done, Singapore/Japan/India bottlenecks & buys
Key Questions
What is the status of Micron's Tongluo P5 fab?
Tongluo P5, a $1.8B investment, completed tool-in in March 2026. It will contribute over 10% to HBM and DRAM capacity with a second fab targeted for H2 2027.
What capacity expansions are underway globally?
Expansions include Singapore NAND, Japan’s JDI Mobara (>10B yen), India Gujarat inauguration, and US $200B expansion with $100B Clay NY megafab groundbreaking. The Clay project aims for 4 plants by 2030, creating 50k jobs with 24/7 construction eyed.
What is Micron's capex plan for FY26?
Micron's capex exceeds $30B in FY26, compared to $25B+ from SK Hynix. This supports AI supply but flags FCF pressures, tariffs risks, and potential 2028 oversupply.
What bottlenecks are affecting production?
Singapore faces NAND helium shortages due to Middle East risks. India and Japan expansions address bottlenecks amid AI demand.
What US incentives support Micron's expansions?
US expansions receive $6.4B CHIPS Act funding and $5.5B incentives. The Clay NY megafab groundbreaking highlights aggressive scaling for AI memory.
How does Micron's Taiwan fab acquisition impact growth?
The $1.8B Taiwan fab acquisition accelerates AI memory growth, paving the way for increased production by 2027. It expands DRAM and HBM capacity amid tightening supply.
What risks are associated with capacity ramps?
AI supply lags, high capex crushing FCF, tariffs, and 2028 oversupply threats are flagged. Erste notes cycle doubts despite $25B+ investments.
Can Micron sustain its AI memory market share with expansions?
A $25B investment surge aims to sustain Micron’s 20% AI memory grab amid surging demand. Expansions like Taiwan and US fabs position it against competitors like SK Hynix.
Tongluo P5 $1.8B tool-in Mar'26 done (300k sq ft/DRAM/HBM>10% incr), 2nd fab H2'27; Singapore NAND helium shortages; JDI Mobara >10B yen; India Gujarat; US $200B/$100B Clay NY megafab/CHIPS; capex >$30B FY26 vs SKH; Framework prices rising thru 2026; AI supply lags to 2030/FCF risks.