Hormuz and Red Sea Disruption Drive Extreme Oil Volatility

Recent reports put Hormuz flows at 11.62 million bpd versus a 17.15 million bpd baseline, with another estimate near 10 million bpd. CENTCOM claims 97% of ships seeking transit passed unharmed and more than 100 million barrels moved with U.S. assistance, but these figures need independent verification. Brent has recently topped $105 and VLCC costs imply roughly $38–40.50/bbl; one report sees futures above $100 into January 2027 before gradual easing.