NATO/Alliance Dynamics: US Cuts Military Support, European Defense Autonomy

US to cut strategic bombers and warships for NATO amid rising geopolitical tensions. Prediction markets show near-term clash probability dropping to 4.2% but year-end rising to 25.5%, suggesting markets see reduced immediate risk but increased longer-term vulnerability. Raises questions about NATO deterrence credibility and European defense autonomy. Aligns with US shift toward Iran/Asia theater. Russia's Ryabkov nuclear warning adds to strategic risk calculus.