Micron Valuation Tension Ahead of Fiscal Q4 Earnings
Key Questions
What is the status of HBM supply and future capacity gains?
HBM is sold out through 2027, with HBM4 launching at 60% capacity gain. The HBM market is expected to triple to $100B by 2028.
Which companies and developments confirm broad AI demand for HBM?
Nvidia Vera Rubin, Tesla and Google CapEx plans, plus Musk's comments highlight demand breadth. Micron has already booked $1B in HBM4 revenue with Tesla supply confirmed.
How do Samsung and Micron compare on HBM4 yields and development?
Samsung leads HBM4 yields at around 70% while Micron catches up. Both firms benefit from a $200B Samsung-Broadcom pact for HBM4E/HBM5 development starting in 2027.
What price trends are forecasted for server DRAM in Q3 2026?
TrendForce projects server DRAM prices rising 13-18% QoQ driven by HBM capacity reallocation, reinforcing HBM as a strategic bottleneck in data center buildouts.
How does SK Hynix's position compare to Micron in HBM contracts?
SK Hynix's uncapped contracts may offer more upside during the HBM4 transition, which is cited as a key variable in its record Q2 profit projection.
Micron's 65.5% QoQ 2Q26 revenue growth and 23.3% DRAM share reinforce its AI-memory positioning ahead of the expected September 30 results. Strong rally and ETF/leveraged-memory interest signal bullish sentiment, but earnings must validate pricing, margins, HBM execution, customer commitments, capex returns, and guidance.