Structural Supercycle vs. Cycle Trap Debate

New Street upgrades Micron to Buy with $2-3T market cap by 2030, citing structural break. UBS target $1,625, supply tight beyond 2027. However, SK Hynix and Samsung pullback >20% on DRAM pricing fears, and contrarian DCF suggests fair value ~$565. Insider selling and CXMT expansion add bearish risks. Recent rebound (+14.6%) and Seeking Alpha's 'KOSPI fear overdone' argument strengthen bullish side. DDR5 price explosion in Germany (5x July 2025 levels) provides real-world evidence of AI-driven supply constraints. New: SK hynix first-half capex surged 73% on AI memory boom, signaling competitive pressure on Micron. 2026 FMS recap validated structural demand through 2028. Latest: SK hynix commits 54.3T won ($39B) to memory capacity, with output not until 2028-2029, reinforcing long lead times and Micron's HBM4 advantage.