CJNG fragmentation, drone warfare, and maritime narcotics interdictions in the Americas

The strategic elimination of Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes in February 2024 marked a pivotal turning point in the hemispheric campaign against organized crime, particularly targeting the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). However, rather than dismantling the cartel outright, El Mencho’s removal has accelerated CJNG’s fragmentation, ushering in an era of intensified violence, technological innovation in criminal tactics, and expanded transnational threats. Recent developments—including deadly maritime confrontations in the Caribbean, heightened drone warfare sophistication, and groundbreaking financial disruption efforts led by Eurojust—underscore a rapidly evolving security landscape across the Americas. As Mexico prepares to host the 2026 FIFA World Cup, these dynamics pose urgent challenges for law enforcement, policymakers, and regional cooperation frameworks.

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CJNG Fragmentation Fuels Deadly Turf Wars and Expands Violence into Interior US States

Following the decapitation of CJNG’s centralized leadership, the cartel has splintered into competing factions, triggering some of the most violent cartel clashes recorded in recent years:

• Surge in Fatalities and Humanitarian Impact: Since early 2024, over 40 Mexican National Guard personnel have been killed in violent confrontations primarily concentrated in Jalisco and Michoacán. Simultaneously, attacks on civilians—including kidnappings, targeted killings, and urban arson in Guadalajara—have displaced thousands, exacerbating humanitarian challenges amid fragile local governance.

• Violence Spills into Interior US States: Notably, cartel-linked violence and trafficking have expanded well beyond traditional border zones. Law enforcement agencies in Georgia, the Carolinas, and Tennessee report rising CJNG activity, including drug distribution networks and violent incidents. This geographic diffusion overwhelms local agencies often unfamiliar with cartel operational tactics, complicating interdiction and community safety efforts.

• Heightened Coastal and Maritime Threats: Coastal communities along Mexico’s Pacific and Caribbean shores are experiencing increased CJNG-related violence, including kidnappings and armed clashes with naval patrols. These incidents threaten critical maritime infrastructure and secure trade routes, signaling a growing maritime dimension to CJNG’s criminal portfolio.

• Pre-Event Security Concerns: Security analysts emphasize that the fragmented and volatile cartel environment poses significant risks ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted across Mexican cities. Ensuring urban stabilization and targeted anti-cartel operations will be essential to safeguard millions of visitors and maintain public confidence.

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CJNG’s Militarized Drone Warfare Reaches New Heights of Complexity and Lethality

CJNG’s drone capabilities have rapidly evolved from rudimentary smuggling tools to integrated militarized systems, enhancing their operational reach and lethality:

• Larger Payloads and Extended Operational Range: The cartel now deploys UAVs capable of carrying up to 10 kilograms of narcotics, firearms, or improvised explosive devices (IEDs) over distances exceeding 300 kilometers, including covert incursions into US airspace with advanced stealth features.

• Real-Time Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR): These drones provide live video feeds to cartel command centers, enabling dynamic monitoring of Mexican and US security movements, facilitating rapid tactical decisions such as supply drops, route adjustments, or precision attacks.

• AI-Driven Autonomy and Swarm Tactics: Experimental implementations of AI-enabled autonomous navigation and coordinated drone swarms aim to saturate and overwhelm counter-UAS defenses, marking a significant escalation in criminal drone warfare sophistication.

• Integration with Multimodal Smuggling Networks: Drone operations are increasingly synchronized with narco-submarines and terrestrial corridors, forming resilient, multi-domain trafficking webs that challenge interdiction efforts across land, sea, and air.

This shift signals CJNG’s transition from opportunistic UAV use to a doctrinal adoption of militarized drone warfare.

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Binational and Regional Counter-UAS Initiatives Intensify

In response to the escalating drone threat, US, Mexican, and regional authorities have scaled up counter-UAS (Unmanned Aerial Systems) efforts through technological innovation and enhanced cooperation:

• Layered Detection and Electronic Warfare Deployment: Critical border sectors such as El Paso, southern Arizona, and South Texas now feature integrated radar arrays, signal jammers, and interceptor drones designed to detect and neutralize hostile UAVs. The Mexican Navy similarly incorporates drone surveillance into Pacific maritime patrols targeting narco-submarine trafficking.

• Targeted Raids on Drone Infrastructure: Coordinated intelligence-driven operations have dismantled multiple CJNG drone production and launch sites, significantly degrading their UAV capabilities.

• Airspace Regulation Updates: The FAA has introduced temporary no-fly zones and revised drone regulations in sensitive border regions, balancing security needs with civilian aviation safety.

• Enhanced Operational Coordination: Recent US-Mexico defense summits emphasize intelligence sharing, joint counter-drone research funding, and streamlined operational protocols. Notably, Texas Governor Greg Abbott authorized expanded Department of Public Safety deployments integrating advanced counter-UAV technologies with frontline enforcement.

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Maritime Narcotics Interdictions Reach Historic Levels Amid Heightened Regional Cooperation and Technological Innovation

Maritime interdiction operations have intensified dramatically, disrupting increasingly sophisticated trafficking methods:

• Record Narco-Submarine Seizures: Mexican naval forces recently intercepted a stealthy semi-submersible vessel carrying nearly 4 tons of cocaine off the Pacific coast. These narco-submarines employ noise reduction and radar evasion measures, highlighting the advanced technological adaptations traffickers deploy.

• Operation GHOST’s Expanding Success: The trilateral US-Mexico-Central America task force has seized over 15 tons of cocaine and arrested approximately 200 suspects by mid-2026. Utilizing integrated satellite imagery, drone surveillance, and rapid intelligence sharing, these agile operations have become a cornerstone of maritime interdiction.

• Enhanced Caribbean Patrols and Enforcement: Collaborative maritime patrols involving Jamaica, the Bahamas, Puerto Rico, and other regional partners have increased cocaine interdiction rates by over 25%, disrupting flows destined for the US Eastern Seaboard and Europe.

• Cutting-Edge Detection Technologies: Authorities now deploy AI-powered underwater sonar arrays and counter-first-person-view (FPV) drone systems to detect stealth semi-submersibles and nocturnal trafficking activities, markedly improving interdiction precision and responsiveness.

• Hardened US Military and Coast Guard Posture: Recent lethal confrontations with suspected drug-running vessels in the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean littoral—such as a violent shootout off Florida involving men wanted for terrorism by Cuba—reflect a more assertive US engagement strategy targeting maritime narcotics logistics. These incidents underscore the operational complexity and diplomatic sensitivities intertwined with maritime interdictions.

• Integrated Intelligence and Financial Fusion: Maritime seizures are now linked in near real-time to financial investigations, combining satellite imagery, cyber intelligence, and data analytics to disrupt trafficking networks comprehensively.

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Financial Disruption Efforts Gain Unprecedented Momentum with Eurojust’s Transatlantic Leadership

Targeting the economic lifelines of fragmented CJNG factions has emerged as a critical front in the fight against organized crime:

• Eurojust’s Landmark Financial Investigations: In a historic operation, Eurojust traced complex cocaine trafficking money laundering schemes funneling cartel proceeds through European financial institutions. This investigation has exposed transatlantic financial networks that sustain criminal enterprises.

• Massive Cryptocurrency Seizures: In 2026, authorities seized over $1.3 billion in cryptocurrency assets linked to cartel activities. These seizures exemplify cutting-edge forensic capabilities and robust anti-money laundering (AML) cooperation across continents.

• Enhanced Judicial Collaboration: Eurojust’s coordinated prosecutions and asset recovery underscore the importance of cross-continental judicial synergy in degrading cartel financial infrastructures, complementing interdiction and enforcement operations in the Americas.

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Emerging Policy Landscape: European Commission Proposes Stricter Rules on Illicit Firearms Trafficking

Expanding the multidimensional approach to cartel disruption, the European Commission announced on February 26, 2026, new proposals targeting illicit firearms trafficking:

• Scope and Objectives: The initiative aims to clamp down on illegal movement of firearms, including trafficking routes that empower Latin American criminal groups such as CJNG, by tightening regulations and bolstering cross-border cooperation within the EU.

• Potential Impact: These measures could significantly disrupt arms flows fueling cartel violence, complementing ongoing drug interdiction and financial disruption strategies.

• Broader Security Implications: The proposal reflects growing recognition that combating cartel violence requires integrated approaches addressing drugs, arms smuggling, and financial crimes simultaneously.

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Broader Regional Crime and Political Violence Dynamics

CJNG’s fragmentation and tactical evolution unfold amid wider transnational crime and governance challenges:

• Complex Cross-Border Criminal Networks: Emerging alliances increasingly transcend national boundaries, complicating law enforcement responses and expanding violence into interior US states unfamiliar with cartel dynamics.

• Political Violence in Latin America: High-profile judicial proceedings in Brazil related to the 2018 murder of Rio de Janeiro councilwoman Marielle Franco illuminate the persistent interplay between organized crime, political violence, and governance deficits across the region, underscoring the societal ramifications of entrenched criminal networks.

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Strategic Imperatives Ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup

Mexico’s preparations to host the 2026 FIFA World Cup occur against this complex security backdrop, necessitating agile, multidimensional strategies:

• Sustained Investment in Advanced Technologies: Prioritizing funding for radar, sonar, electronic warfare, and AI-enhanced detection systems is critical to counter highly stealthy UAVs, narco-submarines, and maritime traffickers.

• Deeper Multilateral Intelligence and Judicial Cooperation: Building on the intelligence fusion that enabled El Mencho’s capture, expanded cooperation among US, Mexican, and regional military, law enforcement, and judicial bodies is essential for synchronized land, air, and sea interdiction and prosecution.

• Targeted Financial Disruption and AML Enforcement: The success of cryptocurrency seizures and Eurojust-led investigations highlights the crucial role of financial targeting in undermining cartel resilience.

• Governance Strengthening and Humanitarian Responses: Operational gains must be complemented by anti-corruption initiatives, governance reforms, and programs addressing displacement and public insecurity caused by cartel violence.

• Event-Specific Security Coordination: Prioritizing urban stabilization, securing transit corridors, and countering drone threats will be vital to ensure the safety and success of the World Cup.

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Conclusion

The removal of Nemesio “El Mencho” has fundamentally altered CJNG’s structure, precipitating a more fragmented, technologically sophisticated, and geographically dispersed criminal threat. The cartel’s rapid militarization of drone warfare, escalating maritime narcotics trafficking, and innovative financial disruption efforts illustrate its adaptability and the increasing complexity of hemispheric organized crime.

Recent advances—including expanded binational counter-drone deployments, record maritime interdictions, Eurojust’s transatlantic anti-money laundering breakthroughs, and emerging EU firearms trafficking policies—demonstrate significant progress in confronting these challenges. Nevertheless, as Mexico approaches a globally significant event amid heightened security risks, sustained investment in cutting-edge technology, intelligence fusion, financial targeting, governance reforms, and coordinated event-specific security planning remain imperative to counter the multifaceted threats posed by fragmented criminal enterprises across the Americas.