Bangladesh’s Foreign Policy Shift Under Tarique Rahman: Navigating Regional Tensions and Domestic Challenges in 2026

Bangladesh stands at a decisive crossroads as its new government, led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) under Tarique Rahman, initiates a strategic recalibration of its foreign policy amidst a complex internal and regional environment. This period marks a departure from previous, more submissive diplomatic postures, moving toward assertive, autonomous engagement with neighboring powers, global players, and regional institutions. The developments of early 2026 underscore Bangladesh’s efforts to balance strategic interests, internal societal tensions, and external geopolitical pressures—all while pushing forward ambitious infrastructure and economic initiatives.

The Core of the New Foreign Policy Posture

The incoming BNP-led government emphasizes strategic autonomy, aiming to safeguard national sovereignty while actively shaping regional dynamics. Building on the legacy of outgoing leaders who prioritized independence, the Rahman administration is seeking to assert Bangladesh’s voice in regional and global affairs. Key components include:

• Enhanced diplomatic engagement with India, focusing on border de-escalation and security cooperation, even as societal narratives sometimes stoke anti-India sentiments.
• Diversification of international partnerships, notably fostering stronger ties with China—particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative—and deepening relations with the United States to reduce over-reliance on any single power.
• Leveraging regional initiatives and multilateral forums to position Bangladesh as a resilient, proactive regional actor, capable of influencing South Asia’s strategic landscape.

Expert analysts, such as Prof Shahab Enam Khan, highlight that Bangladesh’s approach is marked by diplomatic balancing acts: engaging constructively with India, China, and the US simultaneously, carefully managing security concerns and economic interests to prevent dependency while preserving strategic autonomy.

Key Developments and Regional Responses

India-Bangladesh Relations: A Delicate Balancing Act

Despite renewed efforts to improve ties, border disputes and security issues remain persistent sources of tension. The government’s diplomatic initiatives aim to de-escalate tensions and strengthen cooperation, but societal sentiments—often influenced by political factions and Islamist groups—continue to complicate diplomacy. Recent high-level talks have focused on border resolution and security cooperation, yet internal narratives sometimes hinder progress, illustrating the delicate political environment.

China’s Expanding Infrastructure Footprint

China’s role in Bangladesh’s economic development remains pivotal, with ongoing projects under the BRI such as deep-sea ports and airport expansions. A flagship project, the Third Terminal at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport (HSIA), has garnered renewed urgency; as of February 2026, the government urged to expedite its opening to boost trade and strategic connectivity.

However, concerns over debt sustainability, transparency, and geopolitical dependencies are increasingly prominent, especially given Bangladesh’s economic vulnerabilities and regional tensions. Think tanks warn that over-reliance on Chinese infrastructure investments could pose risks if debt levels spiral or if projects lack transparency.

United States Engagement: Diversifying Alliances

Bangladesh continues to deepen its cooperation with the US across trade, security, and development spheres. While seeking to maintain strategic independence, Dhaka recognizes the importance of US support for economic resilience and regional stability. The US views Bangladesh as a key partner in South Asia, especially amid the rising US-China rivalry and regional power struggles.

The EU’s Role and External Pressures

In addition to bilateral engagements, Bangladesh faces pressures from the European Union and other international bodies advocating for reform, political stability, and human rights—elements critical for attracting continued foreign investment and ensuring regional stability.

Recent Key Developments

• Expedited Infrastructure Projects: The government’s push to accelerate the opening of HSIA’s Third Terminal exemplifies its emphasis on connectivity and economic resilience. A February 2026 YouTube video highlights political calls to fast-track this project, underscoring its strategic importance.
• Domestic Political Agenda: Early signals suggest a 180-day domestic agenda aimed at economic reforms and political stabilization, which will influence bilateral relations, especially with India. The agenda’s focus on internal stability could either facilitate or hinder regional diplomacy.
• Economic Risks and Reforms: Recent assessments from Fitch Ratings and think tanks emphasize that Bangladesh’s macroeconomic stability hinges on effective reform delivery. Concerns over debt management, transparency, and external liquidity remain central to the country’s economic trajectory.

Strategic Implications and Recommendations

Bangladesh’s evolving foreign policy landscape demands delicate management of internal and external factors:

• Foster inclusive political dialogue to mitigate societal polarization and build internal cohesion, which is essential for consistent foreign engagement.
• Prioritize diplomatic de-escalation with India—particularly on border issues—to prevent societal unrest from spilling into diplomatic or regional conflicts.
• Ensure transparency and sustainability in Chinese infrastructure investments to avoid debt crises and preserve strategic independence.
• Leverage diversified partnerships—including regional initiatives, US and Chinese investments, and multilateral forums—to strengthen economic resilience and climate adaptation efforts.

Current Status and Future Outlook

As of early 2026, Bangladesh’s government is resolutely pursuing infrastructure expansion, regional diplomacy, and strategic diversification. The push to expedite projects like the HSIA Third Terminal encapsulates a broader goal: enhancing connectivity, attracting foreign investment, and asserting sovereignty amid regional tensions.

However, internal societal tensions—stemming from political polarization, legitimacy crises following the July 2026 National Charter of Reforms, and resurging Islamist sentiments—continue to influence external diplomacy. The government’s challenge lies in balancing internal stability with external diplomacy, ensuring that Bangladesh remains resilient, independent, and economically vibrant.

In sum, Bangladesh’s strategic posture in 2026 reflects a careful navigation of regional currents—aiming to balance influence from China, India, and the US—while positioning itself as a resilient, autonomous player in South Asia. Success will depend on effective internal reforms, transparent international deals, and nuanced diplomatic engagement—a complex but vital path toward sustained stability and growth.