Global Macro Pulse

Defense Tech IPO Momentum

• 🔥 Swarmer Shares Soar 520%: Swarmer, an AI drone company, saw shares soar 520% on debut, opening at $12.50—a 150%...

Key stagflation signals from latest data:

• PPI surge: Feb +0.7% m/m (vs +0.3% est.), core +0.5% m/m (vs +0.3%), at 3.4% overall—driving market...

Defense tech momentum builds post-Swarmer's blockbuster debut:

• AI drone maker Swarmer soared 520% on Nasdaq first day
• Opened at $12.50, 150% above...

Microsoft considers suing Amazon and OpenAI over a $50B deal, spotlighting hyperscaler frictions in AI/cloud infrastructure. Discussion brews with 5 points on Hacker News.

Indian bond markets demand selective picks amid:

• Policy updates, corporate actions, and yield movements
• RBI actions on GSec yields, rate cuts, liquidity, and CRR
• Bond of the Week spotlight
  But bonds carry credit and liquidity risks.

Miles Brundage warns future AI outages could drop GDP by multiple percentage points. No one's planning for it – too busy with bigger AI priorities. Underappreciated tail risk for macro growth.

Key ETF repositioning in Europe amid third week of Middle East conflict:

• Moderate net inflows to global equities, European equities, and energy...

Key angles on Fed outlook amid oil surge:

• FOMC fractures deepen: December saw three dissents on cuts—two presidents resisted, one pushed...

• Equity rebound: S&P 500 surprises with recovery from Iran chaos, AI/semiconductors driving Nasdaq outperformance.
• Oil splits: WTI at $94/bbl...

Gold trades flat despite central banks adding a record 1,136 tonnes worth ~$70 billion to reserves in 2022 amid global inflation risks – signaling persistent CB diversification even as yields compete.

Gulf helium disruptions from US-Israel strikes on Iran are creating critical chokepoints for global chip production:

• Qatar, supplier of ~1/3 global...

Microsoft is reportedly considering legal action against partner OpenAI and Amazon over a $50 billion cloud deal that could breach its exclusive...

Joe Kent, top U.S. counterterrorism official, steps down citing Iran war concerns – the first major public dissent in the Trump administration since hostilities began. Signals rising internal risks to escalation in defense posture.

Pentagon AI Shifts

• 🔥 Replacing Anthropic: Pentagon is developing alternatives to Anthropic's AI tools after supply-chain rift and feud,...

• Cash rate up 25bps to 4.10% in knife-edge decision, inflation fears prevail
• Key drivers: oil/energy supply shock, electricity story, inflation...

• Indirect debt fix: Use inflation, rates, and bond pressures over direct repayment to manage massive US debt without crisis.
• Savers penalized:...

Israeli startup Niv-AI emerges from stealth, raising $12M seed from Glilot Capital, Grove Ventures and others to optimize GPU power at millisecond...

• BTC volatility steady at 55-60%, signaling calm traders vs. VIX to 32%, OVX >100%, MOVE to 95%.
• Iran conflict since Feb 28 damaged oil infra,...

Key angles on Fed signals amid Iran war pressures:

• Pivotal data test: Wednesday's PPI, inflation metrics, and Fed projections probe war-driven...

• Treasury wipeout: U.S. market erased 2026 gains, now negative YTD as Middle East-driven oil surge fuels stagflation.
• Growth risks rising:...