U.S.-Iran confrontation and Strait of Hormuz risk

Direct hostilities are escalating around Hormuz, with fresh U.S. strikes, alleged Iranian retaliation, tanker attacks, casualties, mining threats, cyber activity, and sharply reduced vessel traffic. Russian support for Iran could strengthen its anti-ship capabilities and internationalize the crisis; Iranian openness to restoring a June memorandum and Pakistan's mediation offer provide only fragile diplomatic openings.